The country is likely to witness normal monsoon during southwest monsoon season from June to September, according to Indian Meteorological Department.
The long period average for 'normal' is pegged at 96-104%, with a margin of error of 5%.
The Long Period Average of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm, it said in a press release.
"At present, neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue until the beginning of southwest monsoon season. Thereafter, enhanced probability for negative IOD condition is predicted," it added.
Below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of Northeast India, some areas of Northwest India and southern parts of the South Peninsula, it said.
The met department also said that it is monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean basins that have have strong influence on Indian monsoon.
IMD has also changed the benchmark for 'normal rainfall' for southwest monsoon season from 868.6 mm, which is based on data of 1971-2020. Earlier, 880.6 mm was considered normal rainfall based on data of 1961-2010.
"The encouraging forecast of a normal monsoon in 2022 coupled with healthy reservoir levels in all the regions, augur well for a timely onset of kharif sowing," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.
"However, with contact-intensive jobs reviving in urban areas, we remain concerned that a shift in labour availability may constrain acreage for the kharif season, which has played an important role in boosting output over the last two years. Moreover, the availability and pricing of fertilisers needs to be watched."
IMD has used April initial conditions for generating the Multi Model Ensemble forecast for 2022 southwest Monsoon season rainfall.
The weather department will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2022.
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