India is set to end June 2026 as the country's third driest June in a century, with the all-India rainfall deficit standing at 42% with just a day left in the month.
The shortfall, which has left farmers, water managers and city administrators on edge, is being driven primarily by a strengthening El Niño that has disrupted the monsoon's progress nationwide.
How bad is the deficit, exactly?
The average rainfall recorded across the country in June so far stands at 92.2mm, against a normal of 157.7mm. Even with a good spell of rain expected on the month's last day, June is likely to close at around 100mm overall.
In the past 100 years between 1927 and 2026, only two years have recorded lower June rainfall than this — 2009 (87.5mm) and 2014 (92.1mm), both within the last two decades, reported the Times of India.
Strikingly, the deficit is not confined to one region.
Central India has been hit hardest, recording a 54% shortfall so far this month, followed by east and northeast India at 41%, the northwest at 30%, and the south at 28%. It is unusual for all four of the country's broad regions to record such steep rainfall shortfalls simultaneously, a pattern meteorologists say points to El Niño already exerting influence over the monsoon.
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What is El Niño, and why does it matter here?
El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the east and central Pacific Ocean, accompanied by shifts in wind patterns that affect weather systems globally, including India's summer monsoon.
According to the India Meteorological Department's updated 2026 seasonal outlook, the monsoon is expected to deliver around 90% of the long-period average, placing the season in the below-normal category, with a 60% chance of a deficient season and an 84% chance of below-normal or deficient rainfall overall.
The monsoon itself arrived three days late over Kerala on June 4, against the normal onset date of June 1, before stalling soon after. Forecasters trace the shortfall to a strong El Niño taking hold, with the southwest monsoon typically delivering about 70% of India's annual rainfall and watering most of the country's farmland.
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Is there relief in sight?
As per IMD's projections, the first week of July is expected to bring better and more well-distributed rains across most parts of the country, particularly central India — currently the worst-affected region.
However, multiple forecasters expect below-normal rainfall to persist into much of July even if some improvement arrives, making the season's eventual outcome dependent on the pace of monsoon revival in the coming weeks.
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