With voting concluded across four states and one union territory, multiple exit poll agencies have released their predictions ahead of the May 4 counting day. The picture that emerges is one of near-consensus in some states and deep divergence in others.
West Bengal Exit Polls Prediction
West Bengal is where the polls diverge most dramatically. The state has 294 assembly seats, and a party needs 148 to secure a majority.
- Matrize and P-Marq projected 146–161 and 150–175 seats respectively for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) trails in the 118–140 range.
- JVC calls it a virtual dead heat, with BJP at 138–159 and TMC at 131–152. Poll Diary similarly gives BJP a narrow edge at 142–171 against TMC's 99–127.
- However, Janmat Polls and Peoples Pulse tell a completely opposite story — Janmat puts TMC at a dominant 195–205 seats and BJP at just 80–90, while Peoples Pulse echoes that with TMC at 177–187 and BJP at 95–110.
- The Left and the Indian National Congress (INC) are reduced to near-irrelevance across all agencies.
Tamil Nadu Exit Polls Prediction
Tamil Nadu is the most chaotic prediction landscape, largely because of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) making its debut. Tamil Nadu has 234 assembly seats, with 118 needed for a majority.
- Praja Poll gives the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance a landslide of 148–168 seats, with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led alliance at 61–81 and TVK nearly wiped out at 1–9.
- P-Marq, Peoples Pulse and Peoples Insight broadly agree on a comfortable DMK return at 120–145 seats.
- The outliers are striking: Axis My India projects TVK at 98–120 seats, virtually rivalling DMK's 92–110 — making it a three-way contest.
- JVC goes the other way entirely, predicting AIADMK+ sweeping 128–147 seats and DMK collapsing to 75–95. Kamakhya Analytics splits the difference, projecting all three alliances within the 67–95 seat range.
Assam Exit Polls Prediction
Assam has 126 assembly seats, requiring 64 for a majority. Assam is the most unanimous verdict across agencies.
- Every single pollster gives BJP+ a commanding majority — ranging from 85–95 seats (Matrize, Kamakhya) to 88–101 (JVC, Axis My India) and as high as 86–101 (Poll Diary).
- The Congress and allies are consistently boxed into the 15–39 seat range.
- The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is expected to be largely wiped out.
Kerala Exit Polls Prediction
All four agencies predict a United Democratic Front (UDF) win, though the margin varies. Kerala has 140 assembly seats, with 71 needed to form a government.
- Axis My India is the most bullish on the Congress-led front, projecting UDF at 78–90 seats and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) at just 49–62.
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- Peoples Pulse and Vote Vibe give UDF a more moderate lead — 75–85 and 70–80 respectively against LDF's 55–68 range.
- Peoples Insight is the closest call, putting UDF at 66–76 and LDF at 58–68. BJP is expected to win between 0 and 14 seats depending on the agency.
If these predictions hold, it would end Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's decade-long LDF reign.
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Puducherry Exit Polls Prediction
Puducherry has 30 assembly seats, with 16 needed for a majority. The union territory shows a clear lean toward the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC)-led alliance.
- Axis My India gives AINRC+ 16–20 seats, Kamakhya projects 17–24, and Praja Poll goes highest at 19–25.
- Congress+ is expected to secure 6–12 seats across agencies, with TVK+ picking up 0–4 seats.
- The National Democratic Alliance (NDA)-backed alliance appears set to retain power comfortably.
All results will be declared on May 4. Exit polls carry a margin of error of ± 3% and are not election results.
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