Fresh projections by Today's Chanakya for the 2026 Assembly elections indicate a closely fought battle in Kerala, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) holding a slender edge over the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), while Assam is projected to witness a decisive victory for the BJP-led alliance.
In Kerala, the UDF is projected to secure 69 seats (±9) in the 140-member Assembly, marginally ahead of the LDF at 64 seats (±9). The BJP-led alliance (BJP+) is expected to remain a minor player with 7 seats (±4), while others may struggle to open their account.
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Vote share estimates reinforce the tight race. The UDF is projected to secure 40% (±3%) of the vote, followed closely by the LDF at 38% (±3%). The BJP+ is estimated at 20% (±3%), indicating a notable vote base but limited seat conversion under Kerala's electoral dynamics.
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In contrast, Assam presents a one-sided picture. The BJP+ is projected to win a commanding 102 seats (±9) in the 126-member Assembly, consolidating its dominance in the state. The Congress-led alliance (Cong+) trails far behind with 23 seats (±9), while others are likely to remain marginal with 1 seat (±1).
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The projections highlight divergent electoral landscapes: Kerala's bipolar contest remains finely balanced with a slight UDF advantage, whereas Assam continues to favour the BJP-led alliance decisively.
With margins of error still significant, these projections shows trends rather than certainties, setting the stage for closely watched electoral battles in 2026.
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