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Nirmal Bang Report
Key Points
Consumer Price Index inflation is likely to move up to 3.1% in Feb-26 from 2.74% in Jan-26 owing to food inflation bottoming out on a low base.
Food and beverage inflation is seen bottoming out at 2.88% in Feb-26 vs 2.12% in Jan-26. Core CPI is likely to inch up to 3.46% in Feb-26 vs 3.37% in Jan-26.
Wholeale Price Index inflation is likely to move up to 2.4% in Feb-26 vs 1.8% in Jan-26 led by food articles inflation bottoming out on a low base. Core WPI inflation is likely to inch up to 4.1% in Feb-26 from 3.4% in Jan-26 on rising metal prices and a subdued base.
While Nirmal Bang do not rule out the possibility of a 25 basis points rate cut in FY27, the room for a rate cut may be closing in. CPI inflation under the new series is likely to be ~20-30 bps higher at ~4.3% in FY27 vs 4.1% under the old series.
The brokerage do not expect higher crude oil prices to push up inflation significantly in the near term given that petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased. However, the RBI is likely to remain cautious given increase in LPG prices amid shortages and higher freight costs.
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