France's Election Is Giving the World Deja Vu

(Bloomberg View) -- Nobody has seriously suggested that Russian hackers are behind the troubles facing French presidential candidate Francois Fillon. But apart from that, if you were anywhere on the planet during the recent U.S. election then you might be wondering if you've seen this movie before.

Formerly a front-runner in the French presidential race, Fillon has apologized for errors of judgement but denied acting illegally in employing his wife and kids while in office. He has vowed to fight on, very much as Hillary Clinton did last year. We think we know where this is going -- it doesn't look good for Fillon -- but in the La La Land of French politics, there are probably more twists and turns to go.

Fillon was nearly Filloff on Wednesday. A French news outlet reported wrongly that his wife Penelope had been taken into custody over allegations that he paid her with public funds for work she didn't do. Fillon cancelled a key campaign appearance -- the annual farm fair in Paris is a mandatory campaign stop for candidates wanting to show their support for rural France -- and hastily scheduled a news conference.

But Fillon did not step down and pass the baton to the man he defeated in the primaries, former prime minister Alain Juppe. Instead, he doubled down. "I will not yield. I will not surrender. I will not withdraw," he announced, saying the French public should decide his worthiness for the highest office of the nation.

It remains to be seen how Fillon's defiance, and his defense, will play out. Not all French, even on the right, will be convinced, especially after a campaign that targeted the sleaze of the French establishment and his former boss, Nicolas Sarkozy, who is under investigation for misuse of funds in the 2012 campaign.

Fillon's supporters will see their patience tested over the next couple of months. He will face questioning by investigators on March 15 and the case could drag on well past the May 7 second round of presidential voting. His own Republican Party seems to be having doubts about him, though they are stuck without another candidate ready to step up.

And yet, it's not a good idea to count Fillon out. In what is now a three-way race for the Elysee Palace, no one is positioned to win enough votes on April 23 to avoid a two-way runoff. Fillon might seem handicapped as the only candidate from a mainstream political party, but party structure, grass-roots operations and loyalty may still be powerful enough to be decisive in French elections.

Fillon's main opponent in the first round of voting is Emmanuel Macron, the beguiling 39-year-old candidate of the center-left. He's been accused of a gay extra-marital affair, of being supported by a media cabal, of using public funds for his En Marche movement while he was still a minister. He even faces doubts about his rallies, which seemed to have more grassroots energy before a video emerged showing the same supporters at multiple events. None of that has proved very damaging so far, yet Macron's supporters tend to like him more than love him.

Fillon, on the other hand, has a deep well of support from conservatives and especially Catholics and more credibility on the crucial issue of economic reform. His tough line on immigration will also appeal to voters tempted by Marine Le Pen but looking for a more mainstream candidate.

Le Pen, the populist, protectionist, anti-immigrant National Front leader, has undergone a remarkable makeover in the last year to improve her electability. Despite leading in the polls with 26 percent, she has her own struggles. On Tuesday, members of the European Parliament voted to lift Le Pen's parliamentary immunity so that prosecutors can take action against her for tweeting images of Islamic State killings. Allegations over the misuse of EU funds have so far not seemed to dent her popularity, but it's unclear whether she can broaden her coalition or fix the funding problems that have plagued her campaign.

No polls have her even coming close to winning the second round against either Fillon or Macron (and it's worth noting that French polls have a very good track record). The average poll of a second round vote has missed by only 3 points in presidential elections since 1981; as the Economist noted in an analysis of the polls, that means a fifth of voters opposing Marine Le Pen would have to drop out for her to win, a much larger shift than took place during the Brexit or U.S. presidential votes.

If those predictions carry, the first round will be decisive. While Macron has the edge, Fillon stood up Wednesday and ripped up the latest election script. It may not be the last time before this race is over.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg View. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.

To contact the author of this story: Therese Raphael at traphael4@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mike Nizza at mnizza3@bloomberg.net.

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