(Bloomberg Businessweek) -- With the omicron wave receding across the U.S., frustration with pandemic lockdowns and restrictions is on the rise. Among almost every segment of society—the vaccinated and unvaccinated, Republicans and Democrats, city dwellers and their country cousins—growing numbers of Americans are becoming resigned to living with Covid-19, even if it means accepting that more people will get sick and die. The Biden administration, though, hasn't changed its message. “The president's goal is to defeat the virus,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters in January.
That disconnect is emerging as a central political challenge for President Joe Biden as he prepares to deliver his State of the Union address on March 1. With disapproval of his handling of the crisis steadily increasing, he's well out of step with the public—including, crucially, many Democrats. That unpopularity risks sinking the party's candidates in elections this fall and imperils its slim hold on Congress. A survey of battleground states from Cygnal, a Republican polling company, found that most voters are now more concerned about the economic toll of Covid than the health impact. “This is driven by independent and suburban voters really souring in their view of the country's direction and President Biden's handling of the crisis,” says Cygnal President Brent Buchanan.
Worries about contracting Covid remain widespread, with half of respondents in a new poll from Monmouth University saying they fear catching the virus. At the same time, though, 70% agree with the notion that “it's time we accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives.” That sentiment was shared by a majority of those who say they've had Covid (78%) and those who haven't (65%), as well as by Republicans (89%), independents (71%), and almost half of Democrats (47%).
The disparity between fearing Covid and wanting to normalize everyday life has a simple explanation: Vaccine skeptics have worn down Americans' will to continue trying to beat the disease, says Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth's Polling Institute. “The desire to move on and accept having to live with Covid is being driven by the recognition that a sizable core segment of the public refuses to get vaccinated, so we're not going to get to herd immunity,” he says. The administration is “still in emergency mode, but the public is saying, ‘You know what? Drop it. It's time to move on.' ” Indeed, the number of respondents who told Monmouth they think the country will never get the outbreak fully under control stands at 28%, vs. 6% a year ago.
Although battles over mask mandates and school closings haven't gone away, there are indications that Americans are adjusting to life under endemic Covid even absent a formal government declaration. On Feb. 4 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 467,000 jobs in January, far exceeding forecasts, and upped numbers from November and December, painting a picture of an economy that's been much more resilient amid omicron than experts believed. Data from reservations app OpenTable show restaurant bookings have almost returned to pre-crisis levels. And the Transportation Security Administration reports that almost twice as many people have passed through its checkpoints this year as did so by this time in 2021 (though traffic is about 78% of the 2019 level).
Biden isn't alone in grappling with pushback over Covid, with governments worldwide facing increased anger as the pandemic enters its third year. On Feb. 6, Ottawa's mayor declared a state of emergency after truckers occupied the city center to protest vaccine mandates. And thousands of people have joined recent marches in at least a half-dozen European countries, a reflection of frustration with shutdowns, vaccine rules, and masking requirements.
It's easy to understand why the Covid-weary are becoming more vocal about their displeasure. In the U.S. scattershot adherence to regulations, even among Democrats supportive of masking, has fueled growing anger. On Feb. 6, Stacey Abrams, the former minority leader in the Georgia House of Representatives who's running for governor, tweeted a picture of herself, maskless, smiling before a class of masked kindergartners. She quickly deleted the tweet, but not before a furor arose and her Republican opponent pointed out the hypocrisy. Monmouth pollster Murray says he expects Super Bowl Sunday to be another source of frustration, as parents of school-age kids forced to wear masks bristle at the sight of 70,000 mostly unmasked Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams fans cheering on their teams.
As exhaustion with Covid sets in, Biden and other Democrats sticking to a hard line risk further alienating the suburban swing voters who drove Democratic gains in 2016 and 2018. Last November in Virginia, many such people, fed up with continuing restrictions, elected Republican Glenn Youngkin governor. Strategists in both parties say that without a course correction, congressional Democrats could suffer losses as well. “Parents are really mad, and they're going to hold someone accountable,” says Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist who studies suburban voters. “It'll be K through 12 parents that fuel a GOP tsunami in the fall.”
One way for Biden to escape would be to follow the lead of Democratic governors who've started to accept that Covid won't soon disappear. Colorado's Jared Polis used his State of the State address on Jan. 13 to endorse the idea that “putting this pandemic behind us means learning to live with the curveballs that Covid-19 may throw.” On Feb. 7 the governors of Connecticut, Delaware, and New Jersey announced an end to their states' requirements that students and school employees wear masks—a deliberate effort to treat the virus as a part of everyday life. “We're in a different place than we were six months ago,” Connecticut's Ned Lamont said.
Biden's State of the Union address will therefore carry more than the usual symbolic power—for better or worse. He can declare victory for the vaccinated and begin preparing Americans for an exit strategy, or he can let millions of viewers tune in to see masked faces in a half-empty House chamber, reminding them that “normal” is still a long way off. Democrats' chances of maintaining power in the midterm elections will almost certainly hinge on the public's coming to think that their old life is in sight again. “If we're walking into November still talking about Covid restrictions, then we're missing where voters are,” says Brian Stryker, a partner at Impact Research LLC, a Democratic polling company. “And we're stuck in the past.”
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