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This Article is From Jan 18, 2024

U.S. Jobless Claims Plunge To 187,000, Lowest Since September 2022

Initial applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in more than a year, underscoring the resilience of the labor market to start the year.

U.S. Jobless Claims Plunge To 187,000, Lowest Since September 2022
A job seeker enters a Veteran Employment and Resource Fair in Long Beach, California, US, on Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2024. The Department of Labor is scheduled to release initial jobless claims figures on January 11.
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Initial applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in more than a year, underscoring the resilience of the labor market to start the year.

Initial claims decreased by 16,000 to 187,000 in the week ending Jan. 13, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. 

Among states, New York posted the steepest decline, falling over 17,000 on an unadjusted basis after a large increase in the previous week.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, decreased for a third straight week to 1.81 million in the week ending Jan. 6, the lowest since October.

While weekly claims tend to be volatile, especially around holidays, the four-week moving average of initial applications painted a similarly strong picture. That figure dropped to 203,250, the lowest in 11 months. 

The start of the year is usually a time when seasonal factors skew weekly readings of initial applications, said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC. 

“I would not take this result literally, but, at a minimum, it seems clear that layoffs remain quite low and are not trending higher in a meaningful way,” he wrote in a note.

The US job market has defied economists' forecasts in the past year, remaining robust despite elevated interest rates and helping keep a lid on unemployment. 

Other reports point to some moderation in the labor market, including the latest survey of regional business contacts from the Federal Reserve this week. As Fed officials contemplate cutting interest rates this year, they will be looking for further signs of a slowdown. 

Read More: Fed's Beige Book Shows Resilient Consumer, Cooling Labor Market

The unadjusted data on initial claims, which doesn't take into account seasonal influences, dropped by nearly 30,000 to 289,228. While New York made up over half of that decline, applications in Michigan and Wisconsin also fell.

Workers in New York City can apply for benefits during winter and spring breaks, which makes the numbers for the state more volatile during those times, Eliza Winger, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said in a note.

A separate report Thursday showed that applications to build new homes rose in the final month of the year, indicating optimism about future demand. Starts, however, declined, dragged down by a drop in single-family home construction. 

--With assistance from Reade Pickert and Chris Middleton.

(Adds video.)

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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