- US, China, and Russia leaders may meet in Shenzhen during APEC forum next week
- Discussion topics include Ukraine war, Iran tensions, nuclear arms control, AI risks
- Concerns raised over great powers deciding global issues without smaller nations' input
US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are considering a rare trilateral meeting in China's Shenzhen next week, potentially bringing the leaders of three major powers together amid mounting global tensions, Reuters reported.
The three leaders are expected to be in Shenzhen to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, providing an opportunity for a meeting that could attract considerable international attention.
The talks are expected to address major global flashpoints, including the Ukraine war, tensions with Iran, nuclear arms control and the strategic implications of artificial intelligence.
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Despite the meeting's significance, prospects for a major diplomatic breakthrough remain slim, Reuters reported.
Discussions are still under way, with the agenda and format yet to be finalised, the report said, citing two people familiar with the preparations.
The meeting comes as Washington, Beijing and Moscow pursue competing strategic interests, leaving little room for consensus on major global disputes.
For Putin, the talks could provide an opportunity to push Russia's position on Ukraine and seek a settlement on terms favourable to Moscow.
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The Russian president is keen to secure an agreement that could bring an end to the four-year-old war on terms favourable to the Kremlin.
Trump could use the meeting to showcase his diplomatic credentials and bolster his global standing, while seeking to bring China into nuclear arms control talks amid intensifying great-power rivalry.
Beijing is reluctant to join nuclear arms-control talks with Washington and Moscow, given its far smaller arsenal.
The US and Russia each have more than 5,000 warheads, compared with China's estimated 500, although Beijing is expanding its nuclear capabilities.
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Edgard Kagan, a former Biden administration official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Beijing was unlikely to entertain nuclear arms-control talks, particularly a trilateral deal involving Washington and Moscow.
Such a framework could recognise China as a major nuclear power while placing its arsenal under restrictions similar to those governing the US and Russia, Kagan said.
A senior Trump administration official said Washington did not expect a nuclear agreement at the meeting but wanted Beijing involved in arms-control discussions.
Fears Of A New Yalta-Style Understanding
The proposed talks have also raised concerns that the three powers could shape global affairs without consulting countries directly affected by their decisions.
The prospect has evoked comparisons with the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the US, Britain and the Soviet Union negotiated the post-war order and divided spheres of influence in Europe.
“Yalta” has become shorthand for great powers deciding the fate of smaller nations without their involvement.
Russian nationalists have embraced the prospect, seeing it as a chance for Moscow to reaffirm its global status and secure favourable terms on Ukraine.
Russian nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin described the proposed gathering as symbolically significant, arguing that it demonstrated the importance of Russia, China and the Western powers in shaping a multipolar international order.
The prospect, however, has generated unease in Kyiv and other capitals, particularly among governments concerned about the possibility of their security interests being discussed without their participation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had previously warned against any arrangement resembling a new Yalta Conference, saying Kyiv did not want major powers to negotiate a redistribution of international influence behind closed doors.
Taiwan is another potential source of concern, given its strategic importance and China's longstanding claims over the self-governed island.
For Beijing, comparisons with Yalta also present a diplomatic complication.
China was excluded from the 1945 conference and has since sought to position itself as a supporter of multilateralism and the interests of developing and smaller nations.
China Reluctant To Put Ukraine On Agenda
Although China and Russia have strengthened their strategic partnership in recent years, including through energy trade and military cooperation, their approaches to the proposed trilateral meeting appear to differ.
According to Reuters, Moscow has pushed for discussions on the Ukraine war, while Beijing has resisted including the conflict in the meeting's agenda, citing people familiar with the preparations and a European diplomat.
Washington, too, appears reluctant to use the proposed three-way encounter to discuss Ukraine. A US official said Trump was unlikely to raise the conflict, adding that a trilateral meeting was not the appropriate forum for such discussions.
Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that suggestions were being exchanged regarding a possible agenda, describing the proposed encounter as an event that would attract global attention.
China's embassy in Washington also confirmed that Beijing was in communication with the relevant parties regarding a possible meeting involving the three heads of state, but said there was nothing further to share at the moment.
Trump Seeks Diplomatic Wins
For Trump, the proposed encounter could provide an opportunity to project American leadership at a time when domestic political challenges are mounting.
The Republican Party's recent electoral setbacks and the prospect of a Democratic-controlled Congress next year could increase the administration's interest in securing visible foreign-policy achievements.
A breakthrough on nuclear arms control, progress towards ending the Iran conflict or movement on other international security issues could help Trump strengthen his diplomatic legacy.
Kurt Tong, a former senior US State Department official dealing with East Asia and now a managing partner at consultancy The Asia Group, said Trump would likely use the visit to reinforce his image as an influential international statesman.
He said the US president would seek to demonstrate leadership and authority while showcasing his diplomatic capabilities on the global stage.
The proposed Shenzhen meeting would also add to Trump's record of high-profile diplomatic encounters, including previous meetings with Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Those engagements, however, have not produced the kind of lasting breakthroughs initially anticipated.
A meeting of Trump, Xi and Putin would carry considerable symbolic weight, but competing interests, differences over the agenda and opposition to decisions imposed on smaller nations could undermine hopes of a broader agreement.
The talks are more likely to offer a platform for diplomatic engagement and strategic signalling than produce a sweeping global settlement.
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