The English Premier League is headed for a photo finish this season. Despite not having a promising start, Manchester City picked up momentum in the second half and is now level on points with Arsenal but ahead on goal tally.
It's so close this year that both sides share the same goal difference of +37.
In their last outing, Manchester City secured vital three points with a 1-0 win against relegated Burnley. The latest victory came after a season-defining 2-1 win over Arsenal.
As the title race heats up, here's a look at how the winner could be decided.
Upcoming Fixtures
With the season nearing its conclusion, Arsenal and Manchester City still have five league games apiece.
Arsenal's upcoming matches are:
- April 25 - Newcastle (Home)
- May 2 - Fulham (Home)
- May 10 - West Ham (Away)
- May 17 - Burnley (Home)
- May 24 - Crystal Palace (Away)
Man City's upcoming fixtures are:
- May 4 - Everton (Away)
- May 9 - Brentford (Home)
- May 17 - Bournemouth (Away)*
- May 24 - Aston Villa (H)
- TBC – Crystal Palace (Home)**
*The date for the clash could change if Man City play the FA Cup final on May 16. **Plans for the Crystal Palace clash at home on May 22 have been shelved, with the new date yet to be determined.
On paper, Arsenal's closing fixtures look more straightforward, as they take on teams from the lower half of the standings. Manchester City has a tougher path, with away games at Everton and Bournemouth seen as key moments where Arsenal might benefit from any slip-ups.
ALSO READ | World Cup Final: Football Fans Lash Out At FIFA For Exorbitant Ticket Prices
Arsenal Vs Manchester City Breakdown
How Other Competitions Can Impact The Race
Having booked a place in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals, Arsenal must now balance their domestic ambitions with a two-legged tie against Atletico Madrid, to be played on April 29 and May 5.
Arsenal's progress in Europe could have significant repercussions domestically. The Gunners have failed to win seven of the 10 matches immediately after Champions League fixtures, highlighting a recurring dip.
Awaiting them after the Atletico Madrid encounters are a derby with Fulham and an away trip to a struggling West Ham, who are battling relegation.
Pep Guardiola's City side have advanced to the FA Cup semi-finals and are set to meet Southampton on April 25. Southampton's route included a notable quarter-final win over Arsenal.
What Happens When Two Teams Are Tied For The Top Spot
According to the Premier League's website, under Rule C.17 of the Premier League Handbook, teams level on points are separated by the following criteria, in this order:
- Goal Difference
- Goals Scored
- Points Won In Head-To-Head Matches
- Away Goals Scored In Head-To-Head Matches
- Playoff Match
Applying those rules, Manchester City would have the upper hand if they and Arsenal are level on points, goal difference, and goals scored. City's stronger head-to-head record, four points from the two fixtures, puts them ahead, ensuring the final criteria is not required.
When Was The Last Time The Title Was Decided Based On Goal Difference
The 2011/12 season remains the only time the Premier League title was determined by goal difference. Manchester City finished level on 89 points with Manchester United but came out on top.
A +64 goal difference, compared to their rivals' +56, handed City their first league triumph in over four decades.
ALSO READ | Bengaluru FC vs Mumbai City FC Live Streaming: Likely Lineups; How To Watch ISL Clash On TV, Online?
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
