- Uday Kotak warned India Inc. of an imminent global economic shock at CII Summit 2026
- He said global order is shifting to tribalism from cooperation, impacting trade control
- Kotak highlighted risks from Middle East tensions and the Iran conflict's economic impact
In a sobering address that pivoted sharply from traditional industry optimism, Uday Kotak, Founder and Director of Kotak Mahindra Bank, issued a stark warning to India Inc. at the CII Annual Business Summit 2026. Arguing that the global economic order has entered a volatile 'tribal' phase, Kotak urged businesses and policymakers to embrace a mindset of 'strategic paranoia' to survive an imminent global shock.
Kotak noted that while the direct economic fallout of escalating Middle Eastern tensions — specifically the conflict involving Iran—has been largely muted over the last eight weeks, that grace period is ending.
"We haven't seen the impact of the war in two months, but now it's coming, and it's coming big," Kotak warned. "You are not far away from the shock unless the Iran war stops tomorrow morning. We need to get ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us."
A Return to 'Tribalism'
The veteran banker described a fundamental shift in the global psyche, suggesting the world is retreating from the collaborative "Davos mindset" toward a pre-1945 tribalism where nations fight for control over trade routes and physical assets. He specifically highlighted the growing anxiety over the Strait of Malacca, noting that the AI revolution and geopolitical shifts mean that control over a single geographic chokepoint can now destabilize economies on the other side of the planet.
"We are seeing a mindset of who will control what," Kotak said. "In a tribal world, it matters who controls assets. India needs to be real, strategic, and smart."
Kotak backed his warnings with grim macro projections. He highlighted India's vulnerability to rising oil prices, noting that while the Current Account Deficit (CAD) was manageable at -1% when oil sat at $60/barrel, a surge to $100/barrel would see that deficit balloon to -2.5%.
"We should prepare for paranoia before the event," Kotak concluded, calling for a "low-cost reshaping" of the Indian economy. "Let's move as people, businesses, and policymakers to work more than our talk."
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
