Samvat 2083 Outlook: Kotak Sees Nifty Range-Bound Between 21,700 And 26,300. Here's Its Buy Zone

Kotak expects the Nifty to spend much of Samvat 2083 navigating a wide trading range rather than beginning a sustained bull run. The brokerage sees the index consolidating between 21,700 and 26,300 before establishing a clearer direction.

However, it believes the recent correction has opened opportunities to accumulate fundamentally strong companies, particularly large-cap stocks.

Kotak has identified the 22,100-21,700 range as a crucial accumulation zone. It recommends investors gradually build positions in this band instead of trying to identify the exact market bottom. If the Nifty falls towards 21,000, investors could consider increasing their allocation further.

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"From an investment perspective, we recommend gradual accumulation in the 22,100–21,700 zone, with additional allocation considered if the Nifty corrects toward 21,000," it said.

The brokerage's outlook comes after a volatile year in which geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, weighed on market sentiment. Selling pressure repeatedly emerged at higher index levels, even as individual stocks offered investment opportunities.

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The index is approaching an important support area after an extended correction. Kotak noted that the Nifty continues to trade below its medium-term moving averages. The formation of lower highs on daily and weekly charts also indicates that the broader downtrend has not fully reversed.

However, the market is nearing oversold territory, raising the possibility of a recovery rally. Kotak sees 23,200 as the first major level to watch. A sustained move above this mark could signal a shift in the short-term trend and open the way towards 23,800.

Beyond that, the index could advance towards 24,800-25,000. On the downside, a sustained fall below 22,100 could expose the Nifty to 21,700. A decisive breach of 21,700 would increase the risk of a deeper correction towards 21,000.

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The brokerage's preference remains tilted towards quality large-cap companies for investors with medium-to-long-term investment horizons. It recommends a more selective approach towards mid-cap and small-cap stocks after their relative outperformance over the past year.

Domestic corporate earnings provide some support to this outlook. Results for the fourth quarter of FY26 and first quarter of FY27 were better than expectations, despite pressure from global uncertainties.

Kotak believes investors should use market weakness to accumulate businesses with strong fundamentals rather than react to every short-term market decline. Its broader strategy for Samvat 2083 is therefore to buy on dips, while remaining prepared for volatility and a prolonged consolidation phase.

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