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Anand Rathi Report
Modest volume growth
The mass-discretionary divide in consumption would have resulted in mixed volume growth, with staples likely to post modest growth whereas private vehicles , two wheelers and alcoholic beverages would report healthy growth and premiumisation.
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Credit growth is likely to have been strong, which would have aided financials' net interest income growth. However, with U.S clients holding back on spends on anticipated rate cuts, IT is likely to have seen sluggish volume growth.
Low-cost inventory benefits to aid margin expansion
While commodity prices are inching up sequentially, low-cost inventory and better realisations would have benefited auto and consumer companies. However, cement would have seen lower realisations amid demand pressure. Most financial companies are likely to report continued net interest margin pressure. We expect margin expansion for most sectors, especially domestically-oriented agrochemicals, two wheeler, capital goods, luggage, retail, FMCG and infra.
India on a strong footing
India's macro fundamentals are strong, with gross domestic product growth above 8% in the previous three quarters and likely to exceed the CSO's 7.6% estimate for the year.
With inflation being stable, we expect nominal GDP growth of ~11-12% for the year. This would result in the Nifty50 delivering ~18%/16% earnings growth in FY24/FY25, respectively.
We reckon domestic-oriented sectors would have outshone export-oriented ones in Q4 FY24.
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