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Nirmal Bang Report
We see the surge in refining margins, driven by widening spreads and inventory gains, mitigating the pain in retail motor spirit/high speed diesel margins as pump prices have not been raised since early November 2021 despite the sharp increase in global crude oil and MS/HSD prices.
In our view, this is a key consideration that will determine the timing and extent of excise duty cuts, as well as increase in pump prices of MS/HSD.
These two decisions taken together may be calibrated to ensure the least burden on consumers and reduce the strain on government finances that the anticipated cut in excise duty cut will entail.
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