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Motilal Oswal Report
After growing strongly for two consecutive years, we forecast that India's real gross domestic product growth would decelerate to 5.2% YoY in FY24, while nominal GDP growth would weaken even sharply to 7-7.5%, led by easing inflation.
A combination of factors such as slower global economy, fading pent-up demand and normalising base effects would contribute to slower real growth.
With an expected retail inflation print at just 4.3% and a mere 1% growth in the wholesale price index in FY24, GDP deflator could be ~2%, dragging down India's nominal GDP growth to the lowest level compared to any year between early 1970s and FY19 (i.e., half-acentury pre-Covid period).
Such a slow growth rate would have some serious implications for the macro economy and financial markets.
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