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Motilal Oswal Report
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. reported a beat on both Ebitda and profit after tax in Q2 FY23 mainly due to the one-time grant of ~Rs 56 billion given on account of liquefied petroleum gas under-recoveries.
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Gross refining margin came in at $8.4/barrel of oil (our estimate GRM loss of $3/bbl, 246% YoY, down 50% QoQ).
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Refinery throughput was at 4.5 metric million tonne (our estimate: 4.8 mmt; up 77% YoY, down 7% QoQ).
Singapore GRM of ~$7.1/bbl in Q2 FY23 has now fallen to $2.5/bbl in Q3- year-to-date, which would curtail refining margins further in the coming quarter.
In the marketing segment, sales volumes were at 10.4 mmt (our estimate: 10.1 mmt; up 14% YoY, down 3% QoQ). Oil marketing companies are estimated to be generating gross marketing margin of Rs 10.1 per liter on petrol and loss of Rs 5.6 per liter on diesel in Q3 FY23-year-to-date.
HPCL has the highest leverage to marketing and would suffer the most losses in the marketing segment.
The government recently approved a one-time grant of Rs 56.2 billion to compensate for the under-recoveries incurred on sale of domestic LPG during FY22 and current period, which has been duly recognised by the company in Q2 FY23.
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