- PL Capital forecasts strong Q4 FY26 growth for metals and mining stocks with revenue gains.
- Steel prices rose due to higher coking coal costs and increased domestic infrastructure demand.
- Tata Steel and Jindal Steel expected to see double-digit volume growth in Q4 FY26.
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PL Capital Report
As Q4 FY26 earnings draw closer, PL Capital has identified a mix of metals and mining stocks to Add and Hold ahead of the March‑quarter results.
PL Capital expects its metals coverage universe to deliver a strong performance in Q4 FY26, with revenue/Ebitda/PAT growth of 15%/23%/64% YoY (14%/25%/25% QoQ). Steel prices, which began firming up in mid-December on rising coking coal prices, continued to strengthen through the quarter.
Safeguard extension, lower Chinese exports, stronger domestic infra demand and rising costs due to war related disruptions aided steel prices.
The brokerage expects double digit volume growth for Tata Steel and Jindal Steel, and mid-single digit for JSW Steel and Steel Authority of India, supported by resilient domestic demand and improved government spending.
PL Capital also expect average net sales realisation increase by ~8% QoQ, driven by higher hot rolled coil prices (restricted by contractual volumes, full impact will come in Q1 FY27). Coking coal prices remained volatile during the quarter, while Odisha iron ore prices remained largely flat, providing some relief to spreads.
As a result, spreads moved north of Rs 27k/t towards the end of Mar'26, with average spreads for Q4 rising 24% QoQ to Rs 22k/t.
As a result, Ebitda/tonne for steel companies is expected to increase by ~Rs 2.2k/t QoQ driving a robust earnings growth.
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