- Nithin Kamath noted no unusual trading before India raised gold and silver import duties to 15%
- Indian markets show tighter controls on insider trading compared to Western financial markets
- US markets often see speculative trading around policy announcements, unlike Indian markets
Zerodha co-founder Nithin Kamath has remarked on the hike in import duties on gold and silver by noting that the lack of speculative trading is due to the fact that Indian financial markets operate with significantly tighter controls in “grey zones” than western markets.
Despite the major hike, Kamath noted that open interest, prices, and volumes did not show unusual movements right before the announcement. "The news about import duties on gold and silver going up to 15% came late last night. The interesting thing: neither open interest, prices, nor volume in Gold and Silver showed any unusual moves in the hours leading up to the announcement."
He compared how the US market reacted in place of Indian financial trends: "If this had happened in the United States, I'm fairly sure some of the people close to the decision-making process would have found a way to trade it, either through regulated futures markets, other derivative contracts, or prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi."
He added, "We've seen versions of this with crude. And during the Iran conflict, too, there were all these reports and allegations about people around the government trading through futures, contracts, and prediction markets before or around important announcements."
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The news about import duties on gold and silver going up to 15% came late last night. The interesting thing: neither open interest, prices, nor volume in Gold and Silver showed any unusual moves in the hours leading up to the announcement.
— Nithin Kamath (@Nithin0dha) May 13, 2026
If this had happened in the United… pic.twitter.com/lTN7SgBVbG
He has previously noted that India remains significantly less leveraged than the US, even as trading activity in derivatives and retail participation continues to grow rapidly. "It's kind of insane how casually people in power seem to monetize privileged information. At some point, this stops looking like ‘market participation' and starts looking like blatant insider trading with better branding."
He emphasized that the absence of unusual trading activity on the duty hike indicates that the Indian market is more tightly controlled regarding policy-driven insider trading compared to western markets: "Just another reason why Indian markets, despite all their flaws, are far more tightly controlled in these grey zones than many Western markets."
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