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Nirmal Bang Report
We expect the consumer price index inflation to come in at 5.9% in December 2022, broadly unchanged from 5.88% in Nov-22. CPI food and beverage inflation is seen at 5.0%, largely unchanged from 5.1% in Nov-22.
While vegetable prices are witnessing their usual seasonal decline in winter, this is to some extent offset by sustained inflation in cereals. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation continues to remain sticky, led by inflation in services while gold prices have also advanced lately.
We expect core CPI inflation to come in at 6.06% in Dec-22 versus 6.04% in Nov-22.
The wholesale price index inflation is likely to come in at 5.45% in Dec-22, down from 5.85% in Nov-22 due to a high base and moderation in input prices. Core WPI inflation is seen at 2.84% in Dec-22 versus 3.93% in Nov-22.
The index of industrial production is likely to grow by 1.3% YoY in Nov-22 after a 4% YoY decline in Oct-22. Core infrastructure industries output grew by 5.4% YoY in Nov-22, up from 0.9% YoY in Oct-22.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index readings have also been robust over the past few months and the same has risen from 55.3 in Oct-22 to 55.7 in Nov-22 and further to 57.8 in Dec-22.
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