- A 2028 AI crisis scenario warns of mass layoffs and economic shock globally
- Indian IT giants like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro face high automation risks
- US unemployment could reach 10.2% with S&P 500 dropping 38% from 2026 peak
A note from Citrini Research based on a hypothetical scenario set in 2028 when artificial intelligence tools wipe off business, has set alarm bells ringing. In the report titled 'The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis - A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future', co-author Alap Shah has warned about tech disruption that fueled an AI scare trade and pulled Wall Street lower on Monday.
The fictional "Macro Memo from June 2028" outlines a severe AI‑driven economic shock in which rapid automation triggers mass white‑collar layoffs, collapsing consumer demand and destabilising global markets.
The memo signals potential risk for India's IT outsourcing giants. The analysis notes the scenario as a “nightmare map” for Indian IT leaders like Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., Infosys Ltd. and Wipro Ltd., which depend on large delivery teams vulnerable to AI‑led automation.
The scenario describes US unemployment hitting 10% and the S&P 500 falling 38% from its 2026 peak as companies replace mid‑skill workers with AI agents. Corporate profits initially surge, with firms reinvesting savings directly into compute rather than labour. Middle‑class incomes shrink, creating what analysts call "Ghost GDP", where output rises but the real economy weakens.
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The report projects that the marginal cost of an AI coding agent will lead to a collapse "to essentially the cost of electricity" and legacy IT giants will start seeing contract cancellations and this will accelerate through 2027.
IT exports of over $200 billion have annually made it the single largest contributor to the current account surplus which offsets the country's persistent goods trade deficit. The projection shows that come 2028, the negative impact on IT outsourcing giants will cause the rupee to tank 18% against the US dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India's external accounts evaporates.
The hypothesis in fact goes on to say that by March quarter of 2028, the International Monetary Fund will begin "preliminary discussions" with the Indian government.
Market Voices React
Market expert Deepak Shenoy reacted to the viral note saying "doomsday porn is addictive" and a lot of predictions on AI is fake. "AI based end of everything is the wwf of the world now, fun to watch but is mostly fake. Maybe the money is in the show, not the story they tell you," he said in a post on X.
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