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Nirmal Bang Report
We recently hosted three cement companies as part of our Annual Investor Conference. Overall, the common narrative from the management was that Q3 FY22 demand was weak due to multiple temporary factors and absence of pick -up in demand , which is generally seen post the Diwali festival every year.
Extended monsoon, sand unavailability in various regions, third Covid-19 wave and elections in various states (especially in Uttar Pradesh) resulted in weak demand in Q3 FY22. Given the high base of Q4 FY21, overall demand growth is expected to contract in Q4 FY22 despite month-on-month increase in demand.
FY22 demand growth is likely to settle ~ 7 -9% compared to earlier estimate of 10 -12%. Operating costs have risen sharply , driven by higher coal/ pet -coke prices.
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