Brexit Bulletin: Jeremy Corbyn Names His Top Team

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The prime minister said Jeremy Corbyn would be “alone and naked” if he had to negotiate with the European Union. On Thursday, the Labour leader moved to dispel at least half of that accusation.

Corbyn said that his spokespeople on Brexit, foreign affairs and international trade – Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry and Barry Gardiner – would sit at the Brussels negotiating table, and insisted that his team is prepared for the task. Theresa May's approach, he said, is “reckless.”

“Labour is ready: ready to deliver a deal that gives British businesses and society a chance to thrive,” Corbyn said on Thursday at an election rally in Pitsea, east of London. “On June 19, Labour will be ready: ready to negotiate a Brexit for the many and not for the few. That's my promise.”

The choice of location was ambitious for Labour, which placed third behind the Conservatives and the U.K. Independence Party in the parliamentary seat, South Basildon and East Thurrock, in 2015. The area is also one of the most pro-Brexit in the country.

In an election campaign statement issued on Thursday night, Corbyn promised his party would create one million “good jobs” in five years if elected next week.

Pollsters' Predictions

Although the Conservative lead in opinion polls has dwindled to as little as 3 percentage points from more than 20 a month ago, Theresa May is still set to increase her majority in Parliament, according to a Bloomberg survey of leading pollsters.

Six of the U.K.'s best known polling companies – ICM, Ipsos MORI, ComRes, Opinium, Survation and YouGov – agree that May is far better positioned to win than Corbyn and five of them see a majority of at least 40 seats in the 650-member House of Commons. One said her majority could be as many as 200 seats.

May's ratings for leadership and economic competence – gauges that have a better track record of predicting the outcome than vote-share forecasts – are ahead of Corbyn's. Pollsters also expect fewer young and poor voters to show up and more older, richer ones, helping the Conservatives.

“Things can change at short notice but my expectation is that the Tories will cruise home with a working majority probably in the region of 80 to 100 seats,” said Martin Boon from ICM. “I don't think there's a possibility of Labour having any kind of majority.”

Read more: Get ready for June 8 with our hour-by-hour guide to election night

Climate Retreat

Germany, Italy and France reacted quickly, firmly and in coordination to express “regret” at Donald Trump's decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate change agreement. Theresa May took a more measured approach.

While the main European nations all reacted within an hour of Trump's announcement on Thursday and then put out a joint statement, May waited more than three hours before saying she had “expressed her disappointment” to Trump over the decision.  

May's reluctance to come down strongly on Trump is sign of how she is distancing herself from her European partners as Brexit negotiations draw closer. She is casting her eyes across the Atlantic, towards a U.S. administration with which she wants to agree a free-trade deal.

Climate Changed: Full coverage of climate news and Trump's decision 

Five Years of Talks?

Billionaire investor George Soros said it might take the U.K. as long as five years to get out of the European Union, and the process will do major harm to both sides.

“The talks are bound to last longer than the two years allotted to them,” Soros said in a Project Syndicate op-ed published Thursday. “Five years seem more likely.”

The EU should capitalize on the momentum from election victories for pro-European candidates in the Netherlands and France, and the likelihood of a repeat in Germany in September, Soros said. The bloc can use this to push through long-delayed overhauls, shore up international support, boost economic growth and overcome the “biggest threat” of all, a banking and migration crisis in Italy, he said.

Brexit in Brief

• Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb says Theresa May's negotiating position will be strengthened if she can increase her majority next week. A coalition would be “a completely different kettle of fish,” Stubb said in a Bloomberg television interview.
• Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan expects lots of finance firms to announce plans to relocate to Dublin this summer. Availability of modern office space is a particular draw, he says.
• Billionaire Alexey Mordashov's gold miner Nordgold SE may look into alternatives to its “natural” home of London for a future listing because of uncertainties over Brexit, the company's CEO told Bloomberg.

And Finally...

The north east of England has been solid Labour territory for generations, but the exit from the European Union is rewiring political allegiances. The common theme among voters is neglect, and Brexit has forced Labour and the Conservatives to try to show they can defend the region's interests.

As Rodney Jefferson and Thomas Penny report, Brexit has given the Conservatives an opening that Theresa May sought to capitalize on with a campaign stop there on Thursday. She senses an opportunity in Labour's traditional heartlands.

“People who were Labour can't see the point of Labour anymore,” says Alison Curry, 37, a trained elementary school teacher who has struggled to find a job.

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To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Adam Blenford Andy Reinhardt

With assistance from Editorial Board