The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said conditions are turning favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon into parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week, even as large parts of north and central India continue to reel under heatwave conditions.
"Conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of southwest monsoon likely over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week," IMD said in a press release.
"The low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal lay over the same region at 8:30 a.m. of today, the 12th May 2026, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5km above mean sea level. It is likely to become more marked during the next 48 hours," it added.
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Southwest Monsoon Forecast
The southwest monsoon generally arrives over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 20 before gradually progressing towards mainland India. Kerala typically records the onset of the monsoon on June 1, signalling the start of the four-month rainy season that lasts until September.
Earlier, the Met department had projected that the country could receive below-average rainfall this year. The weather office attributed the possibility to the developing El Nino conditions, which are often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India.
In its forecast released on May 1, the weather agency said El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific were gradually transitioning towards an El Niño phase.
IMD Weather Forecast
In its latest weather bulletin, the IMD warned that severe heatwave conditions are likely to persist in isolated pockets of West Rajasthan over the next six to seven days. Heatwave conditions are also expected in parts of East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra during the coming days.
The IMD has forecast a gradual rise in daytime temperatures across northwest and central India over the next week, although Gujarat may witness some relief after May 14, with temperatures expected to dip slightly.
At the same time, the department has predicted widespread thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall over several regions, particularly in the south and northeast.
Heavy rain is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe, and parts of south interior Karnataka during the next four to five days. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are also expected across Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Lakshadweep.
In the northeast, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are likely to receive widespread rainfall between May 12 and May 18. The IMD has warned of isolated very heavy rainfall over Assam and Meghalaya between May 13 and May 17.
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