(Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel's main election opponent has 90 minutes to tighten the race in their only televised debate, injecting an evening of suspense into a campaign that's yet to see the incumbent break her stride toward a fourth term.
Lecterns for Merkel and Social Democratic challenger Martin Schulz are set up at a Berlin studio for Sunday's clash, and moderators from four networks have prepared questions on migration, security, foreign policy and ensuring a fair society. Though Merkel sought tight control over the ground rules, the candidates will have a bit more freedom to interact than in previous debates.
To read more about Germany's election, click here.
Three weeks before the federal election, Merkel and her party lead in all polls, including personal popularity surveys. For Schulz, the debate may be the last chance to build momentum for the Sept. 24 vote in Europe's dominant country, where a strong economy is limiting appetite for change and for the populism that fueled anti-establishment candidates in elections from the U.S. to France.
“We're focused on the race to catch up and Sunday's debate is a big part of that,” Thomas Oppermann, the Social Democrats' parliamentary caucus leader, told ZDF television. “For many people, Sunday will be the day they make up their minds.”
Latest polls suggest Merkel's Christian Democratic-led bloc leads the SPD by between 13 and 18 percentage points. That also puts the front-runner's pressure on her: 64 percent of respondents expect her to win the debate, while only 17 percent say Schulz will, according to Infratest Dimap polling.
Undecided Voters
“A plurality of voters, about 40 percent or a bit more, say ‘we're not doing too badly and if things keep going this way then we'll keep doing well,”' said Nils Diederich, political science professor emeritus at Berlin's Free University. “That's exactly what Merkel is offering them.”
While the two main candidates have been crisscrossing Germany with campaign stops since mid-August to rally their base, the nationally broadcast prime-time debate is their single biggest chance to sway undecided voters. In a Forsa poll of likely viewers, 22 percent said they hadn't made up their mind.
Even so, Germany's tradition of consensus politics is likely to limit the kind of fireworks seen in U.S. presidential debates.
Broadcasters say they expect about 20 million viewers to tune in, beating the record of 17.7 million set in 2013, when Merkel faced that year's Social Democratic challenger, Peer Steinbrueck, her former finance minister. Based on lots drawn by each campaign, Schulz will get the first question and Merkel has the closing statement. Flash polls of viewers will seek to establish who won.
TV debates are relatively new in Germany, having been introduced for the 2002 election. Changes this year include lecterns angled inward, so the candidates partly face each other instead of looking straight ahead into the camera. Under revised rules, Merkel and Schulz also have more leeway for spontaneous rebuttal.
Network officials say Merkel, as in previous election cycles, insisted on having only one debate. The 63-year-old incumbent, who worked as a physicist before entering politics, said she wants to contrast the two candidates' “concepts and ideas for the future.”
“I'm going in there to tell people about my ideas,” she told reporters on Tuesday. “Of course the debate will also illuminate where we differ.”
Schulz, 61, took a similar tack, saying he wants to focus on his campaign theme of standing up for people struggling on the fringes of German prosperity or worried about retirement benefits. “I don't intend to attack Mrs. Merkel personally,” the former European Parliament president told Deutsche Presse-Agentur newswire.
For an interactive guide to German coalitions, click here.
With Merkel and her CDU-CSU bloc ahead, market attention is focusing on her choice of partners should she win a fourth term. Likely options include a repeat of the current alliance with Schulz's Social Democrats after the election, though both sides have signaled they're weary of the “grand coalition” of the two biggest parties.
The debate on Sunday is unlikely to produce an answer as all parties are jockeying for core voters and keeping several coalition options open.
“Merkel will try to stand firm like a rock and let all of it wash over her,” Sandra Maischberger, the debate's co-host for ARD public television, told reporters. “And Schulz will attack.”
--With assistance from Rainer Buergin
To contact the reporter on this story: Arne Delfs in Berlin at adelfs@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Crawford at acrawford6@bloomberg.net, Tony Czuczka
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
