(Bloomberg) -- On one side of busy South Cherry Street near downtown San Antonio, Senator Elizabeth Warren headlined a beer garden rally for Jessica Cisneros, the 28-year-old progressive vying to unseat one of Congress's most conservative Democrats. On the other side, a half-dozen right-wing protesters gathered, waving anti-Joe Biden flags.
The scene highlights the dilemma faced by Representative Henry Cuellar, 66, a pro-gun, anti-abortion Democrat whose hopes for a 10th term have taken a hit amid a murky federal probe and a redrawn district that extends into areas where Cisneros's support is strong.
The race is a
t once a test for progressives of whether they can expand their reach beyond their coastal urban strongholds and a potential opening for Republicans trying to exploit a weakened incumbent to make inroads in the district Cuellar won with 58.3% of the general election vote two years ago.
The Cuellar-Cisneros race is a rematch from the 2020 primary contest, which Cisneros, immigration and human rights lawyer, lost by less than 4 percentage points.
Cisneros is betting her progressive stances are now a better match for a changing district that stretches from the Mexican border north 150 miles to San Antonio. Cuellar, who has the endorsement of the Laredo Police Officers' Association and spent years funneling government funding back home, has seized on unpopular progressive issues like defunding the police, which the Cisneros' camp says she doesn't support.
Cuellar Predicts Victory
Cuellar, in an interview, predicted that he'd triumph on Tuesday and wouldn't be undone by the investigation because he's done nothing wrong. He added that the district would be better off with his congressional seniority -- as opposed to someone who'd be “just throwing rocks” at other Democrats and “be more on the outside.”
“With seniority, there are certain things that come about, what I believe is at stake, is somebody who can deliver,” he said. “Otherwise, you get somebody new, and they're going to go to the back of the line.”
Read More: Texas Primary Draws Contenders in More Partisan House Districts
Cisneros hasn't been shy about aligning herself with prominent progressives who would be a political liability elsewhere in the state. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York has campaigned for Cisneros, who also has the endorsement of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
“I'm here because Jessica Cisneros fights for families. She doesn't take PAC money. She's not out there for the rich and powerful and big corporations,” Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, told reporters after she campaigned with Cisneros.
Cisneros “is the one” who can unseat Cuellar, said Lisa Woodard, a San Antonio resident who knocked on 142 doors for Cisneros before heading to the Warren-headlined rally where margaritas flowed freely on a hot afternoon. Others, however, aren't so sure.
“It's a gamble on Cisneros' part to bring those figures to the district,” Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said. “Her most potent weapon against Cuellar is on ethics. By making the race more about ideology or left versus center, it kind of plays into the framing that Cuellar wants.”
Either way, he said, “Republicans do have a chance.”
Christian Archer, a Democratic political consultant based in San Antonio, said heavy turnout by women in early voting is a good sign for Cisneros. Yet that may be a bad omen for Democrats in November.
Many of the issues championed by progressives like Ocasio-Cortez won't play well in a district where the oil industry employs many.
“Is she going to talk about the Green New Deal in South Texas in a general election?” he asked. “It's just not a message that's going to work.”
FBI Search
It's unclear how FBI searches last month of Cuellar's Laredo home and campaign office will factor into Tuesday's outcome. Authorities have not publicly explained the FBI activity, but ABC News reported the searches were part of a federal grand jury inquiry that also has sought records of organizations with ties to Azerbaijan, including Texas-based companies its says are linked to Cuellar's wife.
Cuellar has said he would cooperate with any investigation.
On Tuesday, Cisneros focused most of her rally speech on her background as a daughter of Mexican immigrants and her work as an immigration lawyer. She has attacked Cuellar's conservative stances on gun control, immigration and abortion rights.
But she has also confronted the FBI investigation head-on. When asked what has changed since her narrow loss to Cuellar two years ago, Cisneros said there are many voters new to the redrawn district and “being under an FBI raid isn't a good first introduction.”
Redistricting adds more of Bexar County, which includes San Antonio and was carried by Cisneros 2-1 in the 2020 primary. It did subtract some of Hidalgo County, which voted more narrowly for Cisneros.
Cuellar has raised nearly $2 million in the campaign, Federal Election Commission filings show. Roughly 40% of that coming from political action committees. Business political action committees have been the incumbent's biggest source of funds, giving more than $700,000, including maximum $10,000 donations from Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, Chevron Corp., and General Dynamics Corp.
By comparison, Cisneros has raised nearly $1.5 million, with less than 5% coming from PACs. Forty-five percent of her donations come from small individual contributions.
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