New York: A US government weather forecaster on Thursday extended its outlook for the duration of El Nino, seeing the conditions as likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring.
Global forecasters are increasing their projections for the strength and duration of El Nino, which means "the little boy" in Spanish.
This warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific causes heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and even East Africa.
Below is a list of crops most at risk from an El Nino.
Wheat
Australia's high-protein wheat crop is likely to take a hit, with El Nino expected to bring dry weather across the country's eastern grain-belt. Wheat is planted in April-May, and September is the crop's make-or-break month. Some recent rains in parts of the east coast have encouraged farmers to plant the crop.
Rice
Despite abundant rice stocks in key producers India and Thailand, El Nino is likely to curb the output of Asia's staple food. This would provide a floor under rice prices that are trading about 12 per cent below last year's peak. A rally could stoke inflationary fears and unrest in the region. Rice is planted in May-July and requires rains in July and August.
Soybeans
Soybean production would take a hit in India, Asia's second-largest producer of the oilseed, if El Nino brings dry weather to the western and central regions of the country. This could prompt India to import more palm oil, which would further raise prices for it. Soybeans are planted in June-July, and the crop needs rains in August-September.
Palm oil
El Nino does not immediately hit palm oil supplies since it takes about nine months to a year for the trees to show stress due to drought. But rising demand from top importers India and China as well as concerns over an eventual tightening in supplies due to any crop stress would boost prices. About 90 per cent of palm oil, which accounts for 35 per cent of global edible oil supply, is produced in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Corn
Corn production in China and India is also at risk. Typically, China escapes the brunt of El Nino, but corn yields may be curbed because the crop needs relatively higher volumes of water. India's crop exports may drop, helping US and South American suppliers sell more.
Coffee
Forecasters say El Nino's effect on South American coffee and sugar cane is likely to be mixed. South American coffee plantations, which are still stressed due to a drought that hit in the past year, should benefit from the emergence of an El Nino during the harvesting season in the next six months because the weather pattern brings rains to the region. But the rains would also hurt the quality of the harvested beans by making them more bitter.
Sugar cane
Drought-ravaged sugar cane in South America will also benefit from rains, although heavy rainfall caused by an El Nino could interrupt and slow harvesting. It would also lower cane's content of sucrose, the main sugar that crystallizes.
Global forecasters are increasing their projections for the strength and duration of El Nino, which means "the little boy" in Spanish.
This warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific causes heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and even East Africa.
Below is a list of crops most at risk from an El Nino.
Wheat
Australia's high-protein wheat crop is likely to take a hit, with El Nino expected to bring dry weather across the country's eastern grain-belt. Wheat is planted in April-May, and September is the crop's make-or-break month. Some recent rains in parts of the east coast have encouraged farmers to plant the crop.
Rice
Despite abundant rice stocks in key producers India and Thailand, El Nino is likely to curb the output of Asia's staple food. This would provide a floor under rice prices that are trading about 12 per cent below last year's peak. A rally could stoke inflationary fears and unrest in the region. Rice is planted in May-July and requires rains in July and August.
Soybeans
Soybean production would take a hit in India, Asia's second-largest producer of the oilseed, if El Nino brings dry weather to the western and central regions of the country. This could prompt India to import more palm oil, which would further raise prices for it. Soybeans are planted in June-July, and the crop needs rains in August-September.
Palm oil
El Nino does not immediately hit palm oil supplies since it takes about nine months to a year for the trees to show stress due to drought. But rising demand from top importers India and China as well as concerns over an eventual tightening in supplies due to any crop stress would boost prices. About 90 per cent of palm oil, which accounts for 35 per cent of global edible oil supply, is produced in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Corn
Corn production in China and India is also at risk. Typically, China escapes the brunt of El Nino, but corn yields may be curbed because the crop needs relatively higher volumes of water. India's crop exports may drop, helping US and South American suppliers sell more.
Coffee
Forecasters say El Nino's effect on South American coffee and sugar cane is likely to be mixed. South American coffee plantations, which are still stressed due to a drought that hit in the past year, should benefit from the emergence of an El Nino during the harvesting season in the next six months because the weather pattern brings rains to the region. But the rains would also hurt the quality of the harvested beans by making them more bitter.
Sugar cane
Drought-ravaged sugar cane in South America will also benefit from rains, although heavy rainfall caused by an El Nino could interrupt and slow harvesting. It would also lower cane's content of sucrose, the main sugar that crystallizes.
© Thomson Reuters 2015
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