(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The Soviet Union was the original space superpower. For decades it and then Russia led the world in key technologies for operating beyond the Earth.
Now an invasion of Ukraine intended to reassert Russian relevance on the world stage has had the opposite effect in space. By destroying collaborations with Europe, Russia has transformed itself into world's first former space power.
The early years of the space race were often paced by the Soviet Union. As it raced to beat the U.S., it launched the first satellite and the first astronaut, and made considerable advancements in rocketry.
After the Soviet Union fell in 1991, Russia reorganized its space program under Roscosmos, a state agency. From the start, the cash-strapped agency focused on collaborating with partners that could contribute the technical, scientific and financial wherewithal it needed to maintain its lead in an increasingly competitive global space race. Throughout the 1990s, it had a lot to offer in return, including expertise in building and operating a space station. The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration partnered with the Russians on the International Space Station.
Roscosmos also inherited rocket technology. By the early 1990s, updated versions of Soyuz, a Soviet rocket first launched in 1966, and Proton, a Soviet rocket launched in 1965, were still reliable and in use.
The European Space Agency was concerned at the time that it could not maintain access to space by relying on its own rockets or American ones. In 1996, an arrangement was forged so that France-based Arianespace SA, the world's first private launch company, could market and operate Soyuz rockets. Roscosmos and the Europeans agreed a few years later to build launch facilities for the Soyuz at the French-operated European spaceport in French Guiana.
It was a winning deal. Europe gained access to launch services and Russia received an important financial lifeline. As recently as 2013, Russia controlled around half of the global commercial launch industry.
But competition loomed. During the 2000s SpaceX, founded by the electric-car pioneer Elon Musk on the belief that rockets don't need to be monopolized by state-backed contractors, drove a 20-fold reduction in the cost of a commercial launch. By 2020, SpaceX represented half of the commercial satellite launch market, and Russia was down to 10%.
That was a problem. Over the years, as Russia's economy struggled, Roscosmos had leaned on commercial activities for funding. As businesses moved elsewhere, that funding suffered. Between 2014 and 2020, Roscosmos' budget fell from $5 billion to $1.4 billion (NASA's 2021 budget was $23.3 billion). Last year, President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia needed to master new rocket technologies to compete for commercial space launches against SpaceX — and then proceeded to cut funding for Russia's spaceflight activities even more.
Roscosmos could still count on the International Space Station and its commercial collaborations with Europe for financing. The most important European example was a record $1 billion contract signed by OneWeb, a British satellite broadband provider, for 21 launches via Arianespace.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine, drawing sanctions from the European Union and the U.K. Roscosmos responded by suspending rocket operations and recalling Russian staff from the French Guiana spaceport. That left four European satellites and one space telescope in search of new launch vehicles.
A few days later, Roscosmos informed OneWeb that it would not launch its satellites unless it received guarantees that the satellites would not be used for military purposes, and the U.K. government would divest from OneWeb ownership. OneWeb responded by hiring SpaceX to take Russia's place. The European Space Agency informed Russia that it would no longer collaborate on a joint Mars mission, which it can afford to pursue alone.
Roscosmos cannot. Amid sanctions and Russia's belligerence toward its European partners, who would hire it? That leaves a once-proud space program with no apparent way to remain relevant as a space power.
Roscosmos remains a partner in the International Space Station, but shows little serious interest in maintaining a collaboration — or even a friendly relationship — with NASA. Joining with China is an option, but Russia would find itself in the unwelcome position of serving as junior partner to China's better-funded and (over the last decade) far more accomplished space program. A darker option is that Russia will resort to asserting its relevance via demonstrations of space weaponry, including antisatellite weapons.
Whatever route Russia's leadership takes back to space, it's unlikely to restore its nation's status as a space pioneer. Instead, thanks to Ukraine, it has become history's first outer space also-ran.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
- How Elon Musk Beat Russia's Space Program: Leonid Bershidsky
- The U.S. and Russia Still Need to Get Along in Space: Adam Minter
- Russia, U.S. and China Are in a Scary New Space Race: Tobin Harshaw
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Adam Minter is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the author of “Junkyard Planet: Travels in the Billion-Dollar Trash Trade” and "Secondhand: Travels in the New Global Garage Sale."
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