Too Early To Say That Low Growth Trend Reversed: Manmohan Singh

Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today welcomed the uptick in the gross domestic product (GDP) growth but cautioned that it is too early to say there is a reversal in the decline seen in the last five quarters.

“Some economists believe that the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has not adequately captured the impact of demonetisation and GST on the informal sector that accounts for about 30 percent of the economy,” Singh, also a former finance minister, told a gathering of businessmen here.

Further quoting economists M Govinda Rao and former chairman of National Statistical Commission Pronab Sen, the former prime minister said that there is still “considerable uncertainty” about economic growth. He added that the average 7.1 percent growth achieved during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tenure is still lower than what the previous government had achieved.

Reversing five quarters of slowing GDP growth, the Indian economy expanded by 6.3 percent in the July-September period on the back of a pick-up in manufacturing.

The senior Congress leader also said the GDP growth rate falling to 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017-18 due to demonetisation was still a “gross underestimate” as it did not capture the pain of the informal sector. “Think of the human impact from this lost growth -- the lost jobs, the youth whose opportunities have vanished, the businesses who had to shut down, and entrepreneurs whose drive to succeed has turned into discouraged disappointment,” he signed off.