Goldman Raises 2023 Default Forecast for China Junk Property Bonds

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is now expecting a higher default rate for Chinese high-yield property dollar bonds, as missed payments and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on the country's real estate sector.

The investment bank's projection has returned to 28%, a level the firm first released in December before cutting it to 19% in February in the wake of policy-easing measures and a nascent rebound in new-home sales. The year-to-date default figure has reached 15.6%, according to Goldman Sachs, with Central China Real Estate Ltd. among the most-recent delinquencies.

“With no clear visibility of meaningful additional policy easing, we expect defaults to continue to emerge,” analysts Kenneth Ho and Chakki Ting wrote in a report dated July 1. “Unless policymakers can restore sentiment and provide additional financing support for developers, we believe the risks to our default rate forecast are firmly tilted higher.”

New-home sales showed fresh sign of struggle in June, slumping 28% from a year earlier among the 100 largest builders, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. While the government has been weighing a broad package of stimulus measures for sectors including real estate, investors so far have been left disappointed by a lack of aggressive steps.

China Vanke Co.'s Yu Liang, chairman of the country's second-largest developer by sales, said at the firm's annual meeting last week that the home market is “worse than expected.” In March, he brushed off concerns that demand could slump anew. 

(Adds comments from Vanke's chairman in the last paragraph.)

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