- Global AI capital expenditure is projected to reach about $1 trillion in 2026, says Goldman Sachs
- AI investment is expected to rise from 0.9% of global GDP in 2026 to 1.4% by 2028
- US AI investment forecasted at $581 billion in 2026, including private and international spending
Global artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure is on track to reach approximately $1 trillion in 2026, with Goldman Sachs forecasting sustained growth over the next two years.
Highlighting the ongoing expansion of AI technology and infrastructure, the report projects global AI investment will climb from 0.9% of global GDP in 2026 to 1.4% by 2028.
According to Goldman Sachs Research, the US will drive approximately $581 billion in AI investment this year. This total offers a wider picture than the standard $794 billion US hyperscaler capex projection, as it incorporates spending from non-hyperscalers, private companies and international investments, reported by ANI.
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Cumulative global investment in AI since 2022 could reach $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026, according to the report. Goldman Sachs said the pace and eventual scale of AI investment remain important uncertainties for financial markets and the broader economy, particularly as investors assess how high spending could rise relative to GDP and when growth may begin to moderate.
US AI investment is expected to expand from 1.8% of GDP in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028. Goldman Sachs noted that these spending levels align with historical general-purpose technology booms, which typically peaked between 2% and 5% of GDP.
Near-term data signals ongoing strength in AI spending. Goldman Sachs verified this momentum by analysing key indicators, including manufacturing equipment imports in South Korea and Taiwan, purchasing managers' indices, import costs, memory prices and GPU rental rates.
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However, Goldman Sachs cautioned that its estimates involve assumptions and potential risks of double-counting. Cross-checks using corporate earnings revisions, government investment data and global trade flows produced broadly similar estimates of around $1 trillion in global AI investment for 2026.
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