US Fed Meeting 2026 Live: US Stocks Wobble Ahead Of Warsh Decision; Rate Hike Not Ruled Out

Federal Reserve officials have held rates steady after concluding 2025 with three consecutive rate cuts. However, between January and June, policymakers significantly shifted their outlook as the labor market stabilized and progress on underlying inflation stalled.

First, a growing number of officials advocated removing the easing bias from the Fed's policy statement. Then, last month’s Summary of Economic Projections revealed that nine policymakers anticipated at least one rate hike this year, a sentiment driven by broader economic factors rather than just oil price shocks from the war in Iran.

Notably, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who had previously prioritized labor market risks, recently warned that price pressures are broadening and floated the possibility of a near-term rate hike, a hawkish shift echoed by several of his colleagues.

Following the conclusion of the meeting and announcement of the decision, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to hold a press conference half an hour later. 

Warsh's press conference will be streamed live on NDTV Profit's YouTube channel. The Federal Reserve will also livestream the press conference on its official platforms, allowing the public and investors to tune in. 

The report added that firms such as BofA Global Research and Deutsche Bank still expect rates to remain unchanged for now. BofA also warned that keeping rates steady could hurt the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility. Both of these institutions expect rate hikes to begin in September.

As per a Reuters report, a growing number of major brokerages believe that the US Fed could raise interest rates this time as rising oil prices and renewed tensions in the Middle East have increased inflation risks. Brent crude climbed to $100 a barrel last week, raising concerns that inflation could stay above the Fed's 2% target.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to establish US monetary policy, with its July 28–29 meeting wrapping up today. The central bank's next policy session is set for September 15–16.

For 2026, the FOMC calendar spans eight scheduled sessions: January 27–28, March 17–18, April 28–29, June 16–17, July 28–29, September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9.

Meetings held in March, June, September, and December are particularly closely watched by investors, as they include updated Summary of Economic Projections that provide crucial guidance on the Fed's long-term policy trajectory.

While a July pause is the consensus baseline, the door for a September rate hike stays wide open. With both economic growth and employment holding up remarkably well, sticky inflation could force the central bank's hand later this year. Traders are pricing in these odds heavily: the CME FedWatch tool currently indicates that nearly 55% of the market anticipates a rate hike in September.

Curbing inflation remains Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s top objective. A 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday would solidify Warsh’s commitment to restoring price stability, according to Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities. As reported by Bloomberg, Flight noted that such a move would also signal a shift away from the Fed’s tradition of providing extensive forward guidance on future policy decisions.

In just his second FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh is already signaling a shift in how the central bank operates. Earlier this month, he established five independent task forces to review the Fed’s decision-making process, highlighting a deliberate effort to rethink its approach to monetary policy.

U.S. stocks opened lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling more than 400 points, as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and rising crude oil prices added to inflation concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 407.73 points, or 0.77%, at 52,339.59 shortly after the opening bell. The S&P 500 slipped 16.90 points, or 0.23%, to 7,411.88, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 72.34 points, or 0.29%, to 24,804.58.

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S&P falls 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 falls 0.1%.

The biggest focus may not be the rate decision itself but what Warsh says afterwards.

Investors will closely parse his comments for any indication of whether the Fed is becoming more comfortable with another rate hike later this year or still believes inflation risks can be managed without further tightening.

They will also watch for dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee. If more officials vote in favour of raising rates despite a decision to hold, it could signal that the Fed is moving closer to tightening policy in the coming months.

Even with some Fed officials leaning toward higher rates, analysts believe Warsh has several reasons to keep policy unchanged for now.

He recently suggested that one-off increases in energy prices or AI-related investment costs do not necessarily translate into persistent inflation. Instead, he argued that supply responses could eventually ease those pressures, reducing the need for immediate monetary tightening.

Warsh has also launched multiple task forces to examine whether artificial intelligence, productivity gains and broader changes in the economy require the Fed to rethink how it measures inflation and growth. Delivering a rate hike before those reviews are complete could undermine those longer-term policy initiatives.

The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged throughout the year while assessing whether inflation driven by tariffs and higher energy prices following the Iran conflict would calm down on its own. That hasn't entirely happened.

Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target, prompting several policymakers to argue that interest rates may need to stay higher or even rise further to keep price pressures under control.

Recent projections also showed more officials expecting at least one rate hike this year, suggesting the debate within the central bank is becoming more evenly split.

Even so, Warsh has offered little indication of where he stands. Since taking over as Fed chair, he has argued that the central bank should stop signalling policy decisions months in advance and instead respond to economic data as it evolves.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it wraps up its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. But unlike previous meetings, there's far less certainty about what comes next.

While most investors still expect the Fed to stay on hold, some policymakers have argued that inflation remains stubborn enough to justify another rate hike. Others believe it's still too early to tighten policy further.

Good evening! Watch this space for all the live updates on the US Fed Meeting.