Reliance Industries Ltd. is expected to report a modest increase in consolidated revenue and net profit for the September quarter, with the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business likely to lead sequential growth, according to estimates. Revenue is estimated to rise 1.4% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 3,13,700 crore from Rs 3,09,468 crore in the previous quarter. Consolidated Ebitda is projected to increase 9% to Rs 51,942 crore from Rs 47,517 crore, while the Ebitda margin is expected to expand to 16.6% from 15.4%.
Net profit is forecast to grow 2% sequentially to Rs 21,368 crore from Rs 20,946 crore.
The O2C business is expected to be the primary driver of the improvement, supported by stronger refining earnings, petrochemical operations and currency movements. However, relatively muted retail performance and continued weakness in oil and gas production could limit growth across other segments.
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O2C Ebitda Seen Rising 18%
Reliance Industries' O2C segment is expected to report Ebitda of Rs 20,082 crore, up 18% from Rs 17,010 crore in the June quarter. The segment is likely to benefit from stronger earnings at its special economic zone (SEZ) refinery, which is expected to avoid the impact of windfall taxes, along with contributions from US ethane-based petrochemical operations and a weaker rupee.
Investors will watch management's commentary on crude sourcing strategy and the outlook for refining and petrochemical margins. Developments in global crude markets and product spreads could influence the segment's performance in the coming quarters.
Retail Growth May Remain Muted
Reliance Retail's Ebitda is estimated to rise 7% sequentially to Rs 6,784 crore from Rs 6,309 crore. However, the business is expected to remain relatively subdued, with the shift in the festive season likely to weigh on growth and result in a lower Ebitda margin.
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Investors will look for indications of a pickup in retail growth, particularly as the company navigates seasonal demand patterns and works to sustain profitability.
Oil And Gas Business Faces Production Pressure
Reliance Industries' oil and gas exploration business is expected to report flat Ebitda of Rs 4,973 crore, unchanged from the previous quarter. Declining production is likely to weigh on the segment, limiting its contribution to the company's overall sequential growth.
Management's commentary on production trends and the outlook for the business will be important in assessing whether the pressure is likely to persist.
Digital Services Expected To Deliver Steady Growth
The digital services business is expected to report Ebitda of Rs 21,889 crore, up 3% sequentially from Rs 21,255 crore. The segment is likely to deliver steady growth, with investors watching for updates on subscriber trends, JioFiber expansion and the outlook for tariff increases ahead of the proposed Jio IPO.
Any indication of a potential tariff hike could influence expectations for revenue growth and profitability in the digital business.
New Energy, Capex And Debt In Focus
Beyond the quarterly numbers, investors will track Reliance Industries' commentary on its new energy business, capital expenditure plans and debt position. The company's investments across energy, retail and digital services remain important to its longer-term growth strategy. Management's guidance on the pace of spending and the expected returns from these investments will be closely watched.
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The outlook for refining and petrochemical margins, retail growth and Jio's tariff strategy will also help determine whether the anticipated improvement in consolidated Ebitda can be sustained.
Reliance Industries Share Price
Reliance Industries shares closed 0.81% higher at Rs 1,167.40 on Thursday, compared with a 1.05% advance in the benchmark Nifty 50. The stock has declined 1.44% over the past week and 1.24% over the past month. It is down 25.91% year-to-date and 22.39% over the past year.
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