Artificial intelligence could eventually put around 15 million jobs in the US at risk, but the biggest employment shock may not arrive immediately. According to Goldman Sachs, history offers a warning: major waves of technology-driven job displacement have often taken hold during economic downturns, particularly recessions.
Goldman Sachs economists estimated that AI could eventually displace around 9% of the US workforce, or approximately 15 million workers. Drawing on four decades of employment data, the investment bank said the consequences of technological disruption could extend well beyond initial job losses, with displaced workers facing prolonged unemployment and slower wage growth.
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As Fortune reported, early signs of this pattern are already emerging among workers in occupations exposed to AI. Goldman economist Pierfrancesco Mei found that people displaced from AI-exposed jobs since 2025 took about a month longer to find new employment than other workers who lost their jobs.
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They were also around 10 percentage points more likely to remain unemployed a year after being laid off. Goldman said the impact was comparable to the damage observed during previous waves of technological change.
The employment shock appears particularly difficult for older workers. Those aged 35 and above who lost jobs in AI-exposed occupations took approximately five weeks longer than other displaced workers to return to full-time employment. For workers below 35, the difference was around three weeks.
The broader employment data also reflects this age divide. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 7.4 million workers were displaced between 2023 and 2025, compared with 6.3 million in the previous survey period.
Among workers who had held their jobs for at least three years, 72.9% of those aged 25-54 were employed again by January 2026. The figure fell to 57.3% for workers aged 55-64 and just 38.6% for those aged 65 and above.
Meanwhile, employers cited AI in 120,136 announced job cuts through September, accounting for around 21% of all announced layoffs, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Goldman's historical analysis, based on employment data dating back to 1979, found that workers displaced by technology experienced slower inflation-adjusted wage growth and persistently higher unemployment risks.
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Younger, college-educated and urban workers historically recovered better, partly because their skills were more transferable. However, Goldman cautioned that it remains too early to assess the full impact of AI across education, age groups and geographies.
Research from Stanford's Digital Economy Lab has also highlighted a potential hiring slowdown, finding that employment among workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations was around 19% below the level expected based on less-exposed jobs.
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