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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
In Q3 FY23, Indian oil sector's operating profit is expected to increase by 6% QoQ to Rs 411 billion, despite factoring no subsidy benefits. Oil marketing companies' Q3 Ebitda loss will likely be at Rs 8.5 billion (Q2: adjusted for Rs 220 billion LPG grants Ebitda loss at Rs 201 billion) owing to-
lower marketing losses (blended margins Rs 3 versus Rs 8.7 in Q2),
higher gross refining margins (diesel spreads up $6/barrel of oil QoQ) and
no inventory loss.
Upstream segment profitability will be better, due to higher gas prices ($8.57 versus $6.1 in H1 FY23). City gas distributions earnings, on the other hand, will be impacted by higher domestic gas prices, even though lower spot liquefied natural gas prices and retail price hike can soften the blow.
We expect Reliance Industries Ltd. to report operationally better results led by strength in GRMs, lower windfall tax impact (Q3 diesel and aviation turbine fuel of Rs 8.9/3.3/litre versus Rs 9.9/4.3 in Q2), higher gas realisation ($12.6/bbl versus $9.9 in H1 FY23), steady telecom and retail performance.
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