Tough Road Ahead For ITC? Jefferies Cuts Target Price After Q4 Result — Check Full List Of Brokerage Calls

All eyes will be on ITC Ltd. shares on Friday after the FMCG giant reported its fourth quarter earnings for the financial year ending March 2026. It was an in-line quarter for the company, with revenue of Rs 16,050 crore coming below estimates while profit of Rs 5,113 crore was in line with analyst estimates. 

ITC's revenue numbers for the March quarter was largely impacted by cigarettes revenue, though EBIT and PAT were largely a beat, thanks to price hikes. FMCG business growth remained intact while the agri business faced headwinds due to the situation in West Asia.

• Net Profit up 4.9% at Rs 5,113 crore versus Rs 4,875 crore
• Revenue down 7% at Rs 16,050 crore versus Rs 17,249 crore
• EBITDA up 7.3% at Rs 6,425 crore versus Rs 5,987 crore
• EBITDA Margin at 40.03% versus 34.7% YoY

In the wake of ITC's Q4 earnings, a slew of brokerages offered their view on the road ahead, particularly when it comes to the realisations of the sharp tax hike. While most brokeraged maintained the price target, Jefferies issued a sharp price cut, citing impact of tax hikes in Q1FY27.

ALSO READ: ITC Q4 Results: Profit Up 5% Even As Revenue Slides, Margin Expands

Brokerages on ITC

Citi on ITC

• Maintain Sell with TP of Rs 290
• Q4FY26 Signals Regulatory Overhang; Structural Risks Persist
• Cigarette: Q1 performance will provide a clearer read-through of the tax increase impact
• Expect near-term performance to remain weak
• Calibrated, staggered pricing strategy could weigh on realizations and profitability
• Will monitor volume trends, pricing cadence, and competitive intensity through FY27

MS on ITC

• Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 346
• Q4: Broadly in line; implications of the tax increase remain the key monitorable
• Among segments, EBIT growth for cigarettes, FMCG, and paper was ahead of estimates, while Agri was lower
• Expect the stock to be range-bound in the near term

JPMorgan on ITC

• Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 325
• Q4 EBITDA beats
• All eyes on Q1 as cigarette tax impact plays out
• FMCG and Paper businesses seem to be trending in the right direction
• Combination of pricing and cost optimization measures should mitigate emerging cost inflation risks

Jefferies on ITC

• Maintain Hold; Cut TP to Rs 350 from Rs 400
• Reported a strong Q4, driven by cigarette performance
• Impact of sharp tax hike was only partial, but 4Q also likely benefited from pipeline inventory around the cut-off date
• The real test is in Q1FY27 when the impact of the sharp tax hike will be visible
• Price hikes are only partial while volumes & margins will be affected
• Stock is likely to stay range-bound in the near term

Macquarie on ITC

• Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 330
• Noisy Q4; cig volume momentum key
• Q4 performance impacted by transition in taxes
• Like the healthy FMCG demand, and the continued sequential recovery of the paper margin
• Did not like the hit to agri Ebit growth from disruptions linked to the Iran conflict
• As ITC prioritises volume market share, we see a sharp profitability hit in Q1FY27

ALSO READ: Dividend Alert: ITC Ends Two-Year Miss Streak; Check Record, Payout Details

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