Three major global brokerages — Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and BofA Securities — have maintained cautious stances on Tata Power following its fourth-quarter FY26 results, with all three carrying target prices below or barely above the current market price of Rs 418.40. The unified message: the stock's positives are already priced in.
Tata Power's consolidated net profit came in broadly flat year-on-year, missing estimates by 4–13% across brokerages, weighed down by a nine-month shutdown at the Mundra plant, curtailment-hit renewable generation, and a significant capex miss — actual spend of Rs 1.30 lakh crore against guidance of Rs 2–2.5 lakh crore.
Goldman Sachs retained its Sell rating with a 12-month SOTP-based target of Rs 300, implying a sharp 28% downside. The bank flagged that while the Mundra overhang is receding — a supplementary PPA with Gujarat was signed in March 2026 and all five units are now operational — the stock continues to trade at a steep premium to historical price-to-book multiples. RE generation execution and transmission bottlenecks remain key risks.
Brokerages on Tata Power Post Q4 results
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JPMorgan held its Neutral rating but nudged its price target up to Rs 423 from Rs 400, rolling forward estimates to March 2028. It acknowledged strong performances in Odisha discoms, solar manufacturing, and rooftop solar, while flagging that leverage is rising with capex intensity — net debt climbed to Rs 5.61 lakh crore from Rs 4.47 lakh crore a year ago.
BofA Securities reiterated Underperform with a target of Rs 417, arguing that 58% equity allocation to low-return unregulated generation and an oversupplied solar manufacturing industry limits re-rating potential. It trimmed FY27/28 EPS estimates by 2–4%.
What Has Worked For Tata Power In Q4
Rooftop solar was the standout — revenues doubled in FY26, Q4 order inflows jumped 36%, and management is guiding another 50–60% growth in FY27. TP Solar's 4.3GW cell and module plant held EBITDA margins at ~25% with cell yields above 95%. Odisha discoms delivered a sharp profit uptick, with AT&C losses down 200 basis points to 15.5%, while Delhi discoms surprised on regulatory income.
The biggest relief, though, came from Mundra — a supplementary PPA with Gujarat was signed in March 2026, all five units are back online, and coal costs are now a pass-through, lifting a nine-month earnings overhang heading into FY27.
With rooftop solar doubling revenues and Mundra headwinds fading, management has reasons to be optimistic. But at current valuations, the Street says the good news has been priced in.
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