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ICICI Securities Report
Consistent with past market behaviour, cyclicals / high-beta stocks are likely to bear the brunt of the rise in ‘systematic risk' (VIX rising to 30) due to the geopolitical crisis arising from Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, from a demand perspective, domestic cyclicals connected to the investment cycle, credit cycle and pent-up spending (industrials, banks, financial services, auto, discretionary consumption, real estate, etc.) are largely unrelated to the current geopolitical crisis. Hence, if the crisis recedes quickly, cyclical stocks, which have corrected largely due to the rise in ‘systematic risk', could see the fastest recovery.
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