Swiggy share price has the potential to rise nearly 68% from current levels, according to brokerage firm HDFC Securities, which has reiterated its ‘Buy' rating on the food delivery and quick-commerce company.
Swiggy outlined an ambitious five-year roadmap at its FY26 analyst meet, targeting a business with Rs 10,000 crore in adjusted EBITDA and consolidated Gross Order Value (GOV) of around Rs 2.5 lakh crore by FY31, more than three times the Rs 67,734 crore reported in FY26.
The roadmap implies a consolidated GOV compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 30% through FY31, alongside a significant expansion in profitability.
Swiggy's Five-Year Roadmap
The company expects Food Delivery GOV to increase 2.5-3.5 times, implying a 20-29% CAGR, compared with HDFC Securities Institutional Equities' estimate of 17%. Swiggy is targeting adjusted EBITDA of Rs 5,000 crore in the segment, compared with the brokerage's estimate of Rs 4,000 crore.
In Quick Commerce (QC), Swiggy is targeting 4-5 times increase in GOV, implying a 32-38% CAGR, compared with HDFC Securities' estimate of 29%. The company is targeting adjusted EBITDA of Rs 4,000 crore, while the brokerage currently estimates a loss of Rs 180 crore.
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For Out-of-Home (OOH) consumption, Swiggy is targeting 4-5 times increase in GOV, implying a 32-38% CAGR, broadly in line with HDFC Securities' estimate of 34%.
Quick-Commerce Profitability Remains Key Risk
HDFC Securities believes Swiggy's targets are ambitious, particularly in Quick Commerce. According to the brokerage, around two-thirds of the Rs 30 per order improvement required to achieve break-even is expected to come from higher take rates, driven by improvements in product margins and advertising income.
“This is a tough journey to tread as it needs significant improvement in NOV density (currently ~560,000 per dark store per day) and NOV/SKU,” HDFC Securities said in a report.
However, the brokerage noted that the risk of a significant cash-flow blow-up could fall sharply by FY28, as cash flows from Food Delivery and treasury income are expected to exceed Quick Commerce losses. This means investors may not be paying a significant premium for the Quick Commerce business at current valuations.
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“We may differ in the pace at which QC gets to steady-state margins,” the brokerage said.
HDFC Securities believes the risk-reward profile remains favourable, as the Food Delivery business alone could cover Swiggy's current market capitalisation, while the risk of a major cash-flow blow-up appears limited.
Instamart Holds The Key
According to HDFC Securities, Swiggy's long-term fortunes will largely depend on the performance of Instamart and how the competitive landscape evolves over FY26-31.
“The complexion of which remains unknown,” the brokerage said, highlighting the uncertainty around the intensity of competition in the Quick Commerce segment.
HDFC Securities has maintained its ‘Buy' rating on Swiggy shares and assigned a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)-based target price of Rs 470 per share. The valuation includes a 40x June 2028 EV/EBITDA multiple for Food Delivery and 0.5x NOV for Quick Commerce.
Swiggy share price target implies an upside potential of nearly 68% from Monday closing price, according to the brokerage.
At 12:40 PM, Swiggy share price was trading 1.05% lower at Rs 276.90 apiece on the BSE.
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