Stock Picks Today: TCS, SBI, BPCL, Lenskart, PB Fintech And More On Brokerages' Radar

Brokerages have highlighted opportunities across IT, banks, NBFC, fintech, shipping, eyewear retail, oil and gas, and automobiles sector issuing fresh calls on Tata Consultancy Services, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, PB Fintech, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Petronet LNG, Suzuki Motors, KPIT Tech, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, L&T Finance, Tata Capital, Lenskart, GE Shipping while also sharing their outlook Indian CDMO, Steel sector alongside a broader view on credit card data and IRDAI consultation paper.

Citi on TCS

• Retains Sell TP 1875 vs 2040 earlier
• Lower target multiple to 12x vs 13x earlier
• Factor in continued sector challenges and recent sector rerating.

Bernstein On PB Fintech

• Maintain Outperform, TP Rs 2310
• Scenario reflecting max pain & cost control – Rs 2000cr by FY30 (~38% hit)
• Most of the pain driven by health/ motor business.
• Expect FY28E to be a year of ‘rational growth' with cost optimization to protect bottom-line.
• FY29E onward expect growth and margin expansion trajectory to resume from a lower base.
• Company will likely look for ways to monetize the health franchise through asset light options  or be pushed towards a manufacturing solution.

Macquarie On Indian CDMO 

• Novo's manufacturing pivot reinforces the Peptide CDMO investment case
• Within synthetic peptide manufacturing, scale and vertical integration remain the primary drivers of cost efficiency.
• Among current peptide CDMOs, WuXi AppTec arguably offers the largest manufacturing scale
• Divi's Laboratories stands out for its significant vertical integration and growing peptide infrastructure.
• Samsung Biologics could emerge as a dark-horse following its acquisition of peptide manufacturing capabilities through PolyPeptide.
• Almost all leading peptide CDMOs already support Eli Lilly, Novo's key competitor in the GLP-1 market
• Divi's Laboratories remains top pick. 

UBS On Suzuki Motors (Technology Strategy Briefing)

• India is  experiencing significant changes in market trends
• More frequent new model launches by competitors and rapid growth in SUVs.
• Suzuki Motor appears to recognise that delays in launching new SUV models exceeding 4m in length
• Resulted in its share of the SUV segment falling below the company-wide average
• Will continue developing and producing affordable vehicles for first-time buyers in emerging markets. 

Goldman Sachs On Suzuki Motors (Technology Strategy Briefing)

• India Business-Targeting a 50% market share and sales of 10 million units in the ultra-long term
• Alert-current production capacity in India is 2.9 million units)
• Indian sales continue to be strong but Maruti Suzuki's shares have been weak of late
• Believe the short-term background includes a slowdown in sales momentum from October onwards (a reaction to the GST reduction)
• Headwinds from raw material prices, moderate price hikes compared to competitors, and the progression of the weak yen.

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 NOMURA ON RBI CYCLE

• The RBI will do less in this cycle, not more
• See policy fine-tuning and not the steep tightening expected by markets.
• The RBI's monetary policy is at an inflection point.
• Markets are pricing close to 125bp of rate hikes over the next one year
• India's trend inflation has moderated
• Nomura's inflation generalization index confirms no signs of broadening, and  leading index is signalling below-trend growth ahead.
• Expect the cyclical pressures from food and energy prices to push up inflation over the next six months
• But as they dampen demand, inflation should return to target.
• Forecast CPI inflation at 5.2% in FY27, before easing to the midpoint target of 4.0% in FY28.
• Given limited signs of generalization, a full tightening cycle is unlikely.
• Expect 25bp hikes in October and December to a terminal rate of 5.75%. 

UBS On Petronet LNG (Kochi LNG Terminal Visit)

• Maintain Buy, TP Rs 325/share
• Kochi poised for utilization uplift
• Additional revenue opportunities in focus
• Management expects LNG bunkering facility to be completed by end Q4FY27
• Installation/ integration activities are underway
• Dahej expansion strengthens volume optionality despite near-term supply disruption
• Petchem project de-risked through integration benefits and feedstock tie-ups. 

UBS On BPCL (Kochi Refinery Visit)

• Maintain Neutral, TP Rs 365/share
• Kochi ongoing projects to drive capacity growth and value addition
• Kochi refinery with flexible crude processing and product mix capabilities
• Management highlighted potential expansion for Kochi refinery to 18MMTPA
• Polypropylene plant with capacity of 400ktpa and capex of Rs 5500cr is expected to be completed by Q3FY28
• Capacity enhancement project for debottlenecking 17mmt of crude processing with capex of Rs 300cr is expected to be completed by Q4FY27
• Sulphuric acid plant with capacity of 500 tons per day (tpd) with capex of Rs 800 cr. 

JP Morgan On KPIT Tech (Management Meet)

• Maintain Underweight, TP Rs 550/share
• Multiple top clients decided to repriortize their investments or not invest in software defined vehicle programs that hurt growth prospects
• Expects one of the large accounts in Japan to stabilise in 2Q and EU clients to stabilize in 3Q
• Reiterated its guidance of flat revenues in 2Q, some growth in 3Q and strong growth in 4Q
• Focus is to broad base the growth through account mining, adding new clients in passenger vehicle space
• Doubling down on commercial vehicle segments from both mining and hunting accounts
• Expanding into newer geographies like South East Asia, China, Korea and India
• Targeting 18% exit Ebitda margins by 4QFY27 vs 17.2% seen in 1Q. 

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CITI On Cholamandalam Investment & Finance

• Maintain Buy, TP Rs 2100/share
• Reaffirmed 20-23% AUM growth outlook with mortgages and new businesses  outpacing flagship vehicle finance.
• Pre-tax ROA guidance of 3.3-3.5% stays intact despite two emerging headwinds: insurance commission clampdown and rise in Cost of Funds (due to repo rate hike).
• Management leans on yield/fee optimization, opex leverage, and contained credit cost as offsetting levers.
• Asset-quality metrics remain resilient across product segments and net credit loss is targeted below 1.5% at the aggregate company level.

CITI On ICICI Bank

• Maintain Buy, TP Rs 1770/share
• Loan growth remains healthy across retail/business banking/corporate segments, further supported by an outsized FCNR mobilization of USD 18bn (13-14% industry share)
• Near-term NIMs face modest pressure from FCNR deployment lag, elevated term deposits proportion and growing overseas book, with recovery anticipated from 4Q.
• Asset quality remains resilient across segments despite geopolitical headwinds, along with corporate recoveries.
• Credit costs should normalize over medium term, excluding one-off recoveries, with FY27 ECL transition expected to be capital neutral.
• Third-party insurance distribution fee income stays below 1% of revenues (flat since 2019). 

CITI On L&T Finance

• Maintain Buy, TP Rs 380/share
• Reiterated structural transformation under Lakshya 2031
• Expect the company to monetize multiple mitigation levers to minimize risk to an extent possible
• Asset quality commentary remained reassuring, with collection efficiencies holding at 99.8% and credit cost guidance of 2.0-2.2% by exit-FY27 reiterated.
•  NIM+fee guidance of 10.0-10.5% stays intact.
• Overall, execution appears on track with growth momentum and cost discipline consistent with the RoA glide path toward the 2.8% end-FY27 target.
• Final insurance guidelines will be a key monitorable, though may not derail structural RoA glide path. 

CITI On SBI

• Maintain Buy, TP Rs 1300/share
• Expect SBI to have raised close to US$10-11bn (~1.5-1.6% of deposits).
• Reiterated full-year domestic NIM guidance of 3%+
• FCNR(B)-related NIM drag is expected to be immaterial.
• Broad-based advances growth driven by retail/SME/Agri; Corporate working-capital utilization has picked up, with early-stage capex intent visible.
• Three structural fee income levers: Deepened corporate relationships, reduced fee waivers, and accrual-basis booking for government income.
• Current credit cost provides comfortable headroom to be managed within acceptable level even post ECL transitioning.
• Deliberately smoothening bulky expense recognition across all four quarters rather than back-loading. 

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CITI On Tata Capital

• Maintain Buy, TP Rs 450/share
• Constructive tone across growth, credit and technology-led efficiency
• Growth momentum from 1Q sustained across retail, housing, SME and corporate, with management confident in meeting the guidance.
• Credit quality remains benign with no visible stress despite geopolitical and commodity crosscurrents.
• Two regulatory overhangs — RBI's revolving-credit framework and IRDA's insurance-commission proposals
• Management remains confident of FY28 ROA within the 2.5-2.7% guided band. 

Jefferies On Lenskart (On Flagship Store Visit)

• Maintain Buy, TP Rs 676/share
• The format signals a sharper push into the premium segment
• With larger baskets and a better experience
• Should ultimately translate into higher productivity, an improved mix, & stronger profitability over time.
• The premiumization trend-launched B by Lenskart, and these initiatives should support growth & margins over time.

Morgan Stanley On Steel

• Expect steel stocks to do well in next 12 months  
• Domestic HRC prices are at 3% premium to import parity prices 
• Indian HRC spot spreads expanded by 1% this week 
• Low inventory and relatively good demand mean re-stocking should not be a concern 
• Prices have found support from safeguard duty –driving spreads 
• Medium-term remain constructive of steel prices and spreads 
• Other positive triggers include China involution and supply-demand balance.

 
HSBC On Steel

• Muted regional steel price increases could drive trade prices and steel stocks lower in India in the next 2-3 months 
• India HRC prices (retail) are up 10% in the last three months and are now broadly at parity with landed prices  
• India steel stocks have rallied with trade price hikes 
• For the equity rally to continue, need to see China HRC hikes 
• Coking coal prices remains elevated, though Shanxi coal mine restarts should cool prices 
• Prefer TATA Steel and JSW Steel given their high flat product exposure.  
• Jindal Steel  and TATA Steel have lower coking coal exposure and SAIL  has the highest exposure.

 
Nomura On GE Shipping 

• Initiate Buy, TP Rs 1965/share 
• Cyclical compounder with strong cash pile to fund next leg of growth 
• Well-placed for a shipping downcycle 
• Valuation at discount vs global peers  
• Expect annual operating cash flow generation to remain strong at Rs 3800-4900cr over FY2729F 
• Would add 10 vessels each in FY28F and FY29F.  

JP Morgan On IRDAI Consultation Paper 

• Preference order-SBI Life > HDFC Life > Max Financial > ICIC Lombard > ICICI Pru > LIC 
• Cuts are the steepest in motor, credit life and retail health; bancassurance faces sharper compression than agency. 
• See near-term topline pressure but a medium-term positive as better product economics support volume-led growth, higher market share for scaled businesses, and higher margins  
• Expense leaders and low-banca-dependence franchises best placed and requiring minimal changes in business model. 
• Situation remains dynamic, and have to see how large distributors — especially parent banks — react.  
• If the parent banks of HDFC Life, Max Financial or ICICI Pru become more supportive, the delta for improvement may be higher in those stocks.  

Morgan Stanley On August Credit Card Data 

• Monthly industry spends growth has largely been decelerating: 22.5% YoY (Mar25) → 8.9% (Mar-26) → 5.9% YoY (Aug-26).  
• HDFC (+2.1ppt YoY) gained most in monthly spends market share while IndusInd Bank (2.6ppt) and ICICI Bank (-2.1ppt) ceded the most.  
• SBI Cards was broadly flat (+0.1ppt YoY).  
• Aug-26 growth in industry Cards-in-force (CIF) of 10% YoY (6% YoY, Aug-25) grew faster than spends growth of 6% (14% YoY, Aug-25).  
• Aug-26 card usage (spends per card) declined 4.1% YoY; card usage has been broadly stagnant over the past 11 months.  
• Transactions growth (+28% YoY, Aug-26) remains strong (also 11-month trend), outstripping spends growth and confirming a shift to smaller, more frequent swipes. 

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