Stock Picks Today: Indigo, Maruti Suzuki, Shriram Finance, Nykaa And More On Brokerages' Radar

A host of global and domestic brokerages have rolled out fresh views on Polycab, Petronet LNG, Orkla India, Nykaa and several other companies on Friday.

Jefferies on Polycab

• Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 9485 from Rs 9225
• 'Power'Ful Play; Retain as Top Pick
• Post +24% rally from Jan-lows, Polycab at 37x is in-line with its 5-year avg
• While the industry hiked prices by 8-10% in Dec-Q, Polycab strategised to defer hikes to Mar26-Q to protect demand
• Est +25% YoY sales in Q4
• View no major impact from new forays in Wires - CROMPTON, Bajaj set to outsource manufacturing
• FMEG positive margin, strong order books in RDSS and Bharat Net, and EHV are key drivers
• Est FY25-28e EPS CAGR at +25%

 
Investec on Petronet LNG

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 400
• Correction overdone; reiterate Top Pick
• Middle East tensions and Force Majeure declarations have sparked supply concerns
• Analysis suggests even a 30-day disruption would trim annual volumes by 4% and EBITDA by 6%
• Following a ~13% correction, the stock now trades at 9x FY27E PE with an attractive ~5% dividend yield
• With fundamentals strengthening and downside quantified, reiterate Petronet as top pick for 2026

 
Citi on Orkla India

• Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 750
• Regional Leadership, Category Tailwinds
• Well-positioned to capitalise on the formalisation of spices and convenience foods markets
• International expansion and M&A potential
• Strong brands with leadership across core markets
• Category tailwinds to drive long‑term compounding
• Increasing product assortment in core markets
• Expanding distribution; Strong execution capabilities

 
GS on Dr Reddy

• Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 1225
• Semaglutide launch: Significant opportunity
• Renewed its emphasis on the Innovation portfolio

 
GS on Gland Pharma

• Maintain Sell with TP of Rs 1525
• Company believes its 12-13% growth guidance for FY27 as well as 15% CAGR guidance assumes conservative uptick in GLP-1 numbers
• Aspires to take the CDMO business contribution from 10% today to 20% over the medium

MS on Asia EM Equity - Daniel Blake

• Downgrade India to Equal-weight from Overweight
• Nascent recovery, but macro uncertainty
• Move to an Equal-weight stance versus Asia/Emerging markets, given the wide uncertainty around geopolitical developments
• Note the structural reduction of India's oil intensity and improved macro-stability position leave it less exposed than historically
• However, with uncertainty also still swirling around AI disruption and absolute valuations still expensive, we expect it will take some time
• Potentially a peak in the tech cycle for Korea and Taiwan - before international investors reposition towards India
• Removes Maruti Suzuki from focus list

 
UBS on IndiGo

• Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 5480 from Rs 6170
• Earnings sensitivities amidst ongoing conflict
• Ongoing conflict could weigh on airlines' ASK in the near term
• Rising crude poses additional earnings risk
• INR weakness vs USD poses medium-term headwinds

 
UBS on Banks

• See risk of higher inflation and consumption decline owing to energy shock
• SCENARIO A: Oil price up <+10USD; UBSe EPS impact of +1% to -3%
• SCENARIO B: Oil price up by +20-30USD; UBSe EPS impact of -4% to -8%
• See relatively higher sensitivity for mid sized private banks and SOEs vs larger pvt banks
• AXIS and KOTAK Mahindra are preferred picks
• Also have Buy ratings on ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda and CANARA Bank

 
HSBC on Maruti

• Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 17400 from Rs 18000
• Growth resilience vs margin headwinds
• Commodity cost index is up nearly 20% vs Q3 levels, which is a nearly 200 bps margin headwind
• In a scenario where there is no reversal in commodity prices, Maruti may have to consider price hikes soon
• Demand sustained; Maruti maintains market share despite capacity constraint

 
Jefferies on Navin Fluorine

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 7800
• Hosted Vishad Mafatlal - Chairman, Nitin Kulkarni- MD and Anish Ganatra- CFO
• See multiple growth levers in CDMO
• Promising data center cooling solution, strong HFC volume growth and potential new molecule in Spec Chem anchor strong growth ambition
• Expect Navin to deliver 20%+ revenue Cagr and 30% Ebitda margin over FY26-28 as operating leverage benefits play out

 
Jefferies on Infosys

• Maintain Hold with TP of Rs 1290
• Hosted Sandeep Mahindroo and Sweta Sheth for investor meetings
• Infosys highlighted that demand environment is steady and has reiterated its FY26 growth guidance of 3-3.5%
• While macro uncertainty and AI-led deflation may impact growth in the near-term
• Infosys is confident that AI will be net positive over long-term
• Infosys expects margins to remain at current levels even after investments in AI
• Expects FCF conversion to remain above 100% in FY26

 
Nomura on Real Estate

• Stable demand amid volatile macro backdrop
• Demand was resilient for top branded developers despite an uncertain macro backdrop
• Demand in key cities such as Bangalore, Mumbai and NCR was stable
• Demand has been resilient only for projects that are priced appropriately
• These takeaways indicate the real estate cycle remains in a mature phase rather than a slowdown phase
• Maintain view that the developers remain on track to meet/ beat guidance

 
Nomura on Autos

• Tractor emission norms (Trem V) may be delayed
• Positive for M&M as sharp cost impact risk deferred till 2032
• The market was concerned about the risk of sharp price hikes and the related demand impact on Tractor volumes
• With the delayed implementation, medium-term demand visibility improves
• Factor in 24%/5%/5% volume growth for M&M's tractor sales over FY26F/27F/28F

 
HSBC on Paints

• Cost inflation is back after almost four years
• Look at past cycles to assess the interplay of volumes, prices and margins
• Price hikes could lead to a narrowing of the volume-value gap, but the market and competitive structure is different now
• Retain Hold ratings on both Asian Paints and Berger Paints, as structural issues remain
• Asian Paints – Maintain Hold; Cut TP to Rs 2600 from Rs 2900
• Berger Paints – Maintain Hold; Cut TP to Rs 500 from Rs 540

 
CLSA Price Action – Laurence Balanco

• This week's weakness has taken the Nifty back towards support provided by the early February lows
• Just below this, shelf of support is at the 23,700-23,800 area
• From a longer-term perspective, as long as price action holds above the 23,700-23,800 support zone, it ultimately provides the platform for the powerful advance of more than 40%
• It would take a break above the 26,277–26,341 resistance zone would support an initial upside target of 28,700–28,800
• See scope to extend toward a longer-term objective of 31,600–31,700
• In the near-term further ranging action between 24,300-24,500 and 26,277-26,341 is expected
• Clearly a break below the 23,700-23,800 support zone would be a negative event
• Such a move would negate the outline of the cup-and-handle consolidation pattern

 
CLSA on India Tyres

• Tyre margin cycle to peak
• Geopolitical events leading to raw material cost spiking up
• 400bps potential gross-margin hit driven by elevated raw material price in FY27
• Hit on gross margin could bring down EPS by 25-40% for FY27

 
Macquarie on Nykaa

• Maintain Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 210 from Rs 150
• Believe beauty growth is not sustainable
• Nykaa's beauty performance upside has been led by stronger growth in beauty brands, particularly the Dot & Key skincare portfolio
• Think it will be difficult to drive Nykaa.com third-party brand sales and mirror Dot & Key's growth playbook with its other owned brands
• See 90x EV/FY27E pre-IndAS-Ebitda as not adequately factoring growth risks

 
Jefferies on Shriram Finance

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1220
• Healthy Earnings Momentum Ahead
• CV demand (incl used) stays healthy
• Reiterated 18-20% AUM growth guidance for FY27-28
• Cost of Funds can fall 80 bps and lift spreads by 20-25 bps by FY28
• Collections are good so far.
• Expect AUM growth to improve to 18% in FY27 (16% FY26e) as new CV disbursements pick up
• NIMs should expand & may surprise positively
• Credit cost should be steady; expect earnings momentum to be healthy
• Valuations seem reasonable

 
Jefferies Greed & Fear – Chris Wood

• FII buying trigger will most likely be a sudden conviction that the semiconductor cycle has peaked which for now remains lacking
• The other way foreign investors are most likely to return to India in size is a sharp correction triggered by a sudden cessation in domestic mutual fund inflows
• Multiple data points suggest that the best story for the stock market remains
• India's dynamic eco-system of small and medium-sized quoted companies, which compares favourably with many other emerging markets
• Equity valuations in India should always be seen in the context of the country's closed capital account
• Investment in Manappuram Finance will be removed and replaced by an investment in the consumer finance company Tata Capital

 
Kotak Securities on Hospital

• International footfalls under the lens
• Expect a limited impact on hospital coverage on account of travel disruptions due to the ongoing Middle East war
• Apart from the Middle East, also monitor the impact on medical value travel (MVT) from Africa, given that most flight connectivity is via the Middle East
• Exposure is high for Artemis, Max, Fortis, Medanta and Yatharth
• Excluding Artemis, MVT from the Middle East and Africa constitutes just 1-4% of overall sales
• The contribution from Iran and Israel is negligible
• If the situation eases soon, companies might largely be able to recoup at least the elective procedures

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