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Dolat Capital Report
Against the backdrop where global central banks are trying to achieve financial stability and price stability, Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee has voted in majority (six out of six) for a pause in rate hike – repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and five out of six members voted to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation progressively aligns with the target.
We went into the April 2023 policy decision with an objective of not only understanding MPC's views on global developments and its impact on domestic economy but also to understand the MPC's reaction function – proactive versus reactive.
MPC sees inflation moderating to 5.2% versus earlier forecast of 5.3% in FY24 and real gross domestic product forecast has moved higher to 6.5% versus earlier forecast of 6.4% in FY24.
Additionally, there were revisions made in quarterly numbers for both inflation and growth. Inflation for Q1 FY24 is revised higher from 5% to 5.1% whereas inflation for Q4 FY24 is revised lower from 5.6% to 5.2% (largely because of base effects).
Real GDP forecast is retained for the next two quarters, albeit Q3 FY24 and Q4 FY24 estimates are revised higher from 6% to 6.1% and from 5.8% to 5.9% respectively.
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