The de-escalation of tensions in West Asia may have removed one of the biggest overhangs for markets, but according to Achin Goel, CIO and Fund Manager at Bonanza Portfolio, investors should focus on what comes next rather than what just happened. “One day you see one sector going up and another day it's correcting,” Goel told NDTV Profit, arguing that investors should focus on themes likely to play out over the next three months to a year.
Among the biggest beneficiaries of lower crude oil prices could be sectors that were directly hit by higher energy costs. “Aviation, automobile and paints are sectors one can look into and gradually start building positions for good gains in the coming months,” he said.
Contrarian Call
His most contrarian call, however, is in the energy transition space. While renewable energy, EVs and ethanol have attracted investor attention for years, Goel believes nuclear energy remains relatively under-owned and under-appreciated.
“One area that I am really looking forward to, which is not crowded, would be nuclear energy,” he said. Rather than betting only on power producers, Goel sees opportunities across the value chain. “Not just manufacturers, but suppliers, EPC companies, transmission players and even waste-handling companies,” he said.
Sectoral Picks
Goel is also constructive on rate-sensitive sectors such as banks and real estate, particularly as liquidity conditions improve. The fund manager acknowledged concerns around the monsoon, with rainfall deficits remaining elevated so far this season. However, he does not expect a severe inflation shock.
“It is something we have to be careful about, but is it going to impact inflation drastically? Probably not,” he said, pointing to adequate food stocks and policy support. “At the same time, we will be having huge inflows of funds through measures taken by the RBI and the government. Liquidity will be available to support the market in difficult times.”
Within financials, Goel sees opportunities across both banks and NBFCs but prefers smaller lenders over large-cap names.
“Overall banking and NBFC sectors look very positive to me,” he said, citing expectations of stronger credit growth and easing deposit pressures. “If I have to choose between SBI and some mid-cap or small-cap bank, I would probably go with the latter. It doesn't mean there's anything wrong with large banks, but that's my personal preference.”
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