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Dolat Capital Report
Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd. reported revenue, volume in line, however Ebitda, Ebitda/tonne and adjusted profit after tax below estimates, whereas realisation above estimates.
Nuvoco posted + 7.2% YoY (-8.3% QoQ) growth in revenue to Rs 25.7 billion led by + 5.6% YoY (+2.4% QoQ) in realisation/tonne to Rs 5,208 coupled with + 1.2% YoY (-10.6% QoQ) in volume to 4.5 million tonne.
Ebitda +71.8% YoY to Rs 3.3 billion. Net loss of Rs 182 million versus Rs 1.3 billion net loss YoY.
We expect 7.4%/ 22.2% revenue/ Ebitda compound annual growth rate over FY23-26E led by 4.6%/ 9.2%/ 4.8% volume growth and 2.5%/ 0.6%/ 0% cement realisation growth in FY24E/ FY25E/ FY26E.
However, we expect significant improvement in adjusted profit after tax to Rs 6.4 billion in FY26E versus 479 million net loss in FY23.
We maintain our Ebitda estimates for FY24E/ FY25E and introduce FY26E. As we roll over to FY26E, we upgrade from 'Accumulate' to 'Buy' with a revised target price of Rs 437 based on eight times consolidated FY26E enterprise value/Ebitda.
Key Risk: Lower profitability/ higher net debt versus estimated.
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