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NTPC's Rs 16.9 Lakh Crore Capex Plan Offers Rare Multi-Year Visibility, Says Axis Securities — Check Target Price, Upside

India's largest power generation, NTPC's structural pivot toward a regulated, cost-plus thermal base alongside an aggressive renewable and nuclear expansion positions it as a direct and diversified beneficiary of India's decade-long power capex buildout, adds the brokerage.

NTPC's Rs 16.9 Lakh Crore Capex Plan Offers Rare Multi-Year Visibility, Says Axis Securities — Check Target Price, Upside
NTPC has committed to a 10-year group capex plan through FY37, Rs 1.1 lakh crore in FY25-27, Rs 6 lakh crore in FY27-32 and Rs 9.8 lakh crore in FY33-37, heavily skewed toward renewable energy, nuclear, with thermal at 18.0%.
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STOCKS IN THIS STORY
NTPC Ltd.
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NTPC Green Energy Ltd
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NDTV Profit's special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India's top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer NDTV Profit's subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy.

Axis Securities Report

Axis Securities has recommend a Buy rating on NTPC Ltd. with a target price of Rs 363/share, implying a potential upside of up to 10%.

Investment Rationale

Rs 16.9 lakh crore capex roadmap provides rare multi-year visibility:

NTPC has committed to a 10-year group capex plan through FY37, Rs 1.1 lakh crore in FY25-27, Rs 6 lakh crore in FY27-32 and Rs 9.8 lakh crore in FY33-37, heavily skewed toward renewable energy (43.0%) and nuclear (27.0%), with thermal at 18.0%. Few utilities globally offer this length of capital-allocation visibility.

NGEL (renewable subsidiary of NTPC) Is becoming a credible second growth engine:

Operational RE capacity of 12 GW is targeted to scale to 20 GW by FY27E, 28 GW by FY28E, 60 GW by FY32E, and 136 GW by FY37E. NGEL already runs an industry-leading ~89% operating Ebitda margin, positioning it as a high-quality, high-growth arm rather than a bolt-on RE portfolio.

ALSO READ: Defence Stocks To Buy: HAL, Solar Industries Among ICICI Securities' Top Picks — Details Inside

Outlook and Valuation:

According to the brokerage NTPC's structural pivot toward a regulated, cost-plus thermal base alongside an aggressive renewable and nuclear expansion positions it as a direct and diversified beneficiary of India's decade-long power capex buildout.

Looking ahead, the brokerage expects earnings visibility to strengthen further as NTPC Green Energy's high-margin RE portfolio scales toward its 136 GW FY37E target and the group's cost-plus thermal model continues to de-risk cash flows, aided by industry-best receivable cycles.

This will be supported by a 35.7 GW under-construction pipeline, an expanding regulated equity base, and emerging optionality from nuclear, battery storage, and green hydrogen initiatives.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Axis Ntpc.pdf
VIEW DOCUMENT

DISCLAIMER

This report is authored by an external party. NDTV Profit does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of NDTV Profit.

Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.

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