- Global refined copper demand forecast to rise 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027
- China’s copper consumption expected to grow 1.9% with global growth at 1.3%
- Refined copper output projected to increase 0.4% in 2026 and 3% in 2027
Global refined copper consumption is projected to rise 1.6% to 28.66 million tonnes in 2026 and 2% to 29.24 mln tonnes in 2027, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its 'Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027'.
The 2026 demand outlook has been cut from 2.1% growth estimated in October, reflecting uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and trade disruptions that could weaken the global economy and impact copper demand.
China's demand is expected to grow 1.9%, while consumption in the rest of the world is seen rising 1.3%, supported by stronger manufacturing activity in key end-use sectors, continued energy transition, urbanisation, digitalisation, and new semi-finished production capacity in several countries.
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ICSG expects demand to remain muted in major consuming regions such as the European Union and Japan.
Global refined copper output is forecast to increase 0.4% to 28.76 mln tonnes in 2026, as limited concentrate availability caps primary electrolytic production, partly offset by gains in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) and secondary (scrap) output.
Production is seen rising 3% to 29.61 mln tonnes in 2027 on improved concentrate supply and planned expansions in SX-EW and secondary capacity.
The refined copper market is expected to show a surplus of 96,000 tonnes in 2026, compared with a deficit of 150,000 tonnes projected in October, due to weaker demand and higher secondary output. A larger surplus of 377,000 tonnes is forecast for 2027 on additional supply.
"ICSG recognises that global market balances can vary from those projected owing to numerous factors, notably the current conflict in the Middle East," the group said, noting that recent balance outcomes have deviated from forecasts due to unforeseen developments.
World copper mine production is now expected to grow 1.6% to 23.56 mln tonnes in 2026, down from 2.3% projected earlier, on lower output in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia.
Growth is seen accelerating to 2.3% in 2027 to 24.1 mln tonnes, driven by new or expanded capacities, stronger Chilean and Zambian output, and recovery of operational rates in Indonesia and the DRC.
The next ICSG meetings will be held in Lisbon in October 2026. On the London Metal Exchange, the most-active three-month copper contract was quoted at $13,311.5 per tonne today, unchanged from Friday's close.
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