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ICICI Securities Report
Coal India Ltd. posted higher than expected production/offtake in September 2020 and consequently Q2 FY21.
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For September 2020, production/offtake was 40.5 million tonne / 46.5 million tonne, up 31.6% / 31.7% YoY, while the figures for Q2 FY21 were 115.1mnte / 134.2mnte, up 10.6% / 9.6% YoY.
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Thus, production/offtake recovered substantially from down 9.7% / down 18% YoY in 4M FY21 to reach 236mnte / 255mnte, down only 2% / 7.6% YoY, with Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd. and Northern Coalfields Ltd. outperforming among the subsidiaries.
Coal India's efforts in terms of over burden removal, higher e-auction volumes and import substitution makes us believe that if the positive trend continues until November 2020, the company may exceed our volume estimate of 580mnte for FY21E (it is confident of achieving 660mnte).
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