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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
We maintain our FY23/24E earnings estimate, due to possibility of adhoc government grants to compensate for marketing losses. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. reported better than expected Q2 results with Ebitda of Rs 14.9 billion (down 88% QoQ; our estimate: Rs 86.4 billion) and profit after tax of Rs 21.7 billion (our estimate: Rs 95.9 billion), due to receipt of one time grant of Rs 56.2 billion towards liquefied petroleum gas under recovery for H1 FY23.
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Also lower than expected inventory loss cushioned HPCL's Q2 performance versus our expectation of Rs 39 billion loss.
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We believe oil marketing companies earnings will be hit by sharp jump in diesel marketing losses (current diesel loss at Rs 10/litre) given low inventory, gas to oil switch (because of high spot liquefied natural gas prices) and drop in Russian exports (despite improvement in refining profitability).
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