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HDFC Securities Report
We attended CRISIL's webinar on real estate–The Ground Realty is Shaky.
CRISIL's view - Residential demand could fall by 50-60% in FY21 and prices would remain under pressure (decline of 5-15% and sector consolidation would accelerate as the financial position of small players worsens further.
Commercial office- impact on the existing office space has been marginal as collection remained healthy, new leasing to face challenges and strong financial position of the players will help tide over the pandemic.
Retail revenue could fall by 50% in FY21 as recovery would be slower and closure of non-performing stores could lead to increase in vacancy from 4% at present to more than 10%.
At HDFC Securities we believe our coverage universe may see 15-20% YoY drop in pre-sales, despite good recovery in second half of first quarter.
Pain for malls may continue with increase in vacancy and lower rental resets, whilst offices may see resilient collections with lower rental resets, deferrals in new leasing and marginally higher vacancy.
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