- Gold prices have dropped about 20% since January's peak, easing costs for buyers this Dhanteras
- Jewellery stocks mostly outperformed the Nifty 50, with Sky Gold & Diamonds gaining 168% in 2026
- Jewellers focus on revenue growth through higher spending, not increased gold weight sold
Gold prices have collapsed sharply as compared to the highs clocked earlier this year, and the recent slump, driven by the spike in crude oil prices and high Treasury yields, has further worsened the slide. The precious metal, seen as a hedge against inflation, is now down about a fifth from the peak recorded in January.
For shoppers heading to jewellery showrooms this Dhanteras, which falls on Nov 6, gold will be roughly 20% cheaper than it was at the start of the year's frenzy. The India Bullion and Jewellers Association's (IBJA) benchmark rate for 24-carat gold closed at Rs 1,40,054 per 10 grams on Oct. 30, against a record of Rs 1,75,340 on Jan. 29.
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The stock market has not punished the companies that sell that gold. Of six listed jewellery stocks tracked for this report, five have done better than the Nifty 50 so far in 2026, and four have beaten gold itself. Sky Gold & Diamonds has gained about 168% this year, while the benchmark index is down nearly 11%.
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The gap points to something investors appear to have understood well before the festive rush. A jeweller's revenue depends on how much customers spend, not on how many grams they carry home, and the industry has spent the past year finding ways to keep that spending going.
A Four-Week Rally, A Ten-Month Slide
Gold began the year at Rs 1,33,195 per 10 grams, according to IBJA's closing rate for Dec. 31, 2025. Within four weeks it had jumped almost 32% to its Jan. 29 peak. Since then it has surrendered most of that rally, and the Oct. 30 rate leaves it only about 5% higher for the year.
The selling has come from abroad. Spot gold fell close to 4% on Friday to around $3,875 an ounce, a one-year low, putting it roughly 30% below January's record of $5,595. A sell-off in US technology stocks forced investors to dump assets across the board. At the same time, Brent crude stays above $110 a barrel, strengthening bets that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in December. Higher rates make gold, which pays no interest, less attractive to hold.
For buyers, "cheaper" needs a qualifier. IBJA's rate on Oct 17, 2025, the last working day before Dhanteras last year, was Rs 1,29,584 per 10 grams. Gold, in other words, still costs about 8% more than it did a year ago, and that is before 3% GST and making charges.
The Scorecard
The gains are uneven. Smaller companies have done most of the heavy lifting, while Titan and Kalyan Jewellers, the two largest listed names, have risen more modestly, rising by 9.6% and 4.1% this year, respectively. Even so, both sit well ahead of a broader market that has had a difficult year. Sky Gold & Diamonds has been the standout, with 168% gains, followed by PC Jeweller and Thangamayil Jewellery rising by 62.6% and 40.2%, respectively.
In comparison, the 24-karat gold has risen by about 5.2% in 2026 so far in the Indian retail market, and the equity market benchmark, Nifty 50, has slipped by 10.9%.
What The Jewellers Know
The simplest answer is that a jeweller is paid on the value of a sale, not its weight. When gold gets dearer, every chain and bangle in the display case is worth more, and a customer who still buys ends up spending more for the same grams, or even fewer.
Titan's own numbers show how this works. In its quarterly update to the stock exchanges on Oct 6, the Tata Group company said its domestic jewellery business grew about 21% year-on-year in the July-September quarter. The number of buyers, however, rose only in the mid-single digits. Average ticket sizes grew by double digits.
Kalyan Jewellers told a similar story in its own update, reporting consolidated revenue growth of more than 26% for the quarter and same-store sales growth of about 20%. Analysts caution against reading too much into such figures. Anil R, senior research analyst at Geojit Investments, told The Financial Express that revenue growth "should not be read as equivalent growth in grammage".
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The second thing jewellers have worked out is that they do not need customers to bring fresh money. More than half the transactions at Titan's jewellery business now involve customers trading in old gold, Arun Narayan, chief executive of the company's jewellery division, said in an interview published by Fortune India on Monday.
Narayan said the company had been pushing exchange offers since last October and stepped up the campaign after the Prime Minister urged citizens not to buy gold unless they really needed to. "We encouraged consumers to repurpose their old, unused jewellery instead of buying gold," he said, pointing out that nearly all the gold Indians buy is imported.
For the jeweller, an exchange is still a sale, complete with making charges, and it brings people back into stores at a time when high prices keep many away.
Jewellers have also changed what is on the shelf. Titan said studded jewellery grew in the early thirties per cent during the quarter, ahead of roughly 20% growth in plain gold jewellery, while demand for gold coins fell by high single digits. Narayan told Fortune India the company is pushing lightweight 22-carat designs alongside 14-carat and 9-carat pieces under brands such as Mia.
Lighter designs let buyers stay within budget, while studded pieces lean less on the gold price and more on design and stones.
Festive Season Not Counted Yet
The final reason investors are holding on is timing. Titan said demand softened towards the end of September because the festive calendar had shifted into the October-December quarter. With Dhanteras on Nov 6 and Diwali on Nov 8, the bulk of this season's sales, along with the early weddings that follow, will show up only in the third-quarter numbers early next year.
What will also be in focus is the earnings scorecard of the listed jewellers. Thangamayil Jewellery is due to report its September-quarter results this week, and Titan's board meets on Thursday, Nov 5, to approve its numbers.
Beyond the festive counters, gold's direction will be set far from Indian showrooms. Crude prices, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the US Federal Reserve's December decision are all likely to move the metal in the weeks ahead.
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