Monsoon rains arrived two days ahead of schedule this year and it looks like the rain gods are in a benevolent mood for the second year in a row. The Indian Meteorological Department which came out with its second long range forecast on Tuesday has revised its projections, hiking the possibility of normal rainfall to 98 percent, from the earlier estimate of 96 percent. The director general of the meteorological department KJ Ramesh told BloombergQuint, that the prospect of a strong El Nino is also waning.
El Nino is a weather pattern that impacts monsoon by diverting rain bearing clouds.
While India did receive normal rainfall last year, certain parts of the country continue to face drought like situations as the pattern was sketchy. The meteorological department expects no such disparity this time round, with it predicting adequate rainfall in Central and Western India.
The agency defines monsoon as normal when rainfall is between 96 percent and 104 percent of the long-term or 50-year average.
Here's the entire conversation with Ramesh.
Can you give us more details with respect to the upgrade that you have had as far as the seasonal rainfall is concerned?
As it is mentioned in our April 18 bulletin, prospects of strong El Nino developing are receding and signals to the phenomenon could be seen from April 1 itself. That's why we have indicated prospects of monsoon rainfall could go higher towards their near normal average of 100 from the estimated figure of 96.
Indeed, the prospects of strong El Nino have receded, which was independently confirmed by Australian Weather Bureau and National Weather Bureau of SA- NOAA. That's how the favorable conditions for good/normal monsoon activities improved and that is why we have upgraded to 98 percent.
Last week there was a suggestion that monsoon would take over large parts of Goa and some parts of Andhra Pradesh around June 7. Is this development on track?
The development has already begun. Monsoon had started advancing with good strength yesterday itself and areas in Andhra Pradesh, coastal Karnataka received good rains. The monsoon should touch Goa by tomorrow.
Last week you told us that you could give us a better idea of the kind of distribution that you are expecting in the months of June and July. Can you shed some light in this regard?
June is an advancement phase month of the monsoon, we don't normally assess the rainfall because monsoon covers gradually during June. But for July, we have given 96 percent of the long-term average India should receive. In August also 99 percent of the long-term average rainfall India should receive in the country as a whole.
An update the cyclone Mora on the north-east, can you give us an idea of the developments there as well?
After the advancement supported by cyclone Mora, the north-east has been getting a very good wide-spread rainfall activity and even flooding was reported in couple of places because of strong incessant rains. I suppose good rainfall activity is continuing and that would continue even with its advancement towards West Bengal now.
There is no risk or concerns about excessive rainfalls that could be detrimental to that geography now?
No, nothing as such. It is a continuing activity of a good amount of 5-10 centimeters of rainfall per day and a couple of local places have reported some flooding but by and large it has not disrupted the activity at least in our part of India which is the north-east India. Whereas, Bangladesh had a lot of impact on ground because of its flat terrain associated with the landfall of the cyclone.
So, when it comes to distribution, are there any areas across India for now which stand the risk of receiving relatively lesser rains?
See, lesser rains relatively will be in the north-west India. According to what we have assessed yesterday was in central India we will get almost 100 percent of the rainfall; peninsular India will get about 99 percent of the rain but north-west India and north-east India they might get around 96 percent of the seasonal average.
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